MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Trade Hard, if you flip a coin 10 times and come up with 10 heads would you say you perform well? If 100 traders flip coins 10 times and 1 of them gets 10 heads would you say he is the best performer?

The problem is always the same: statistical validation. You cannot judge someone's performance after 2.5 months for the same reason you cannot evaluate a coin flipper after 10 flips.

Warren Buffett is the 2nd richest man on earth and he did it by gaining only 30% a year (starting with perhaps close to $1,000,000 though)...surely there must be many traders who think they can outdo Buffett, let's say by getting consistently 50% a year for many years..if so, they will appear in the top of Forbes 400 soon. So far they haven't though (50% a year means 7500 times more in 22 years...with just $100,000 to start this still means $750,000,000 after 22 years which is enough for Forbes 400 inclusion).

The other thing is the size...multiplying $10,000 in the futures markets in not the same as multiplying $10,000,000 in those same futures markets.