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Re: Aiming4 post# 388

Wednesday, 11/16/2005 4:00:50 AM

Wednesday, November 16, 2005 4:00:50 AM

Post# of 51763
Aiming, The full term Lilly uses is "AMPA Receptor Potentiator" or ARP, which might produce slightly different results on the search engine.

BTW, I was digging further into Durect (DRRX), the company providing the technology for Remoxy. They look interesting, though they had a big runup recently, followed by a stock offering which brought the stock back down a bit. I'm not in a hurry to buy them just yet, since they may continue to consolidate for a while, but they do look interesting. They have several other licensing deals similar to the one with PTIE, which yield them milestones and eventual royalties. Their own in-house program is the most potentially lucrative though - an ultra long acting anesthetic for post-surgical pain management. The market for such a product is surprisingly huge, estimated at approx $1.8 Bil/year (assuming 25 mil annual post-surgery procedures, a 30% market penetration, and a price of $250). The Durect version of Bupivicaine provides continuous post-op pain relief for 2-3 DAYS, thereby drastically reducing the need for opioid pain meds (thus avoiding their side effects), and reducing hospital stays considerably (thus saving hospitals/insurers many thousands of dollars). Physicians get fewer post-op phone calls since there's little/no post-op pain. Nausea and vomiting from opioids is greatly reduced. This looks like a clear winner all around, and a very high reward/low risk program. The Phase 3 should be starting soon, and this product is owned completely by Durect and could be a blockbuster ($1.8 Bil/year potential, all owned by Durect, and even a fraction of that would be make Durect a great investment).

Durect also has various licensing deals for products utilizing some of their other novel drug delivery technologies, not only to PTIE for Remoxy (whose deal with King Pharma should generate several more abuse-resistant programs using Durect's technology), but to others like Endo Pharma (a 7 day transdermal Sufentanil patch which is 1/5 the size of existing Fentanyl patches - these are commonly used by oncologists and pain specialists). Also a deal with Voyager for an implantable AD drug (in Phase 3). Anyway, Durect looks like a company to keep an eye on. I'll be watching for a suitable entry point to take a modest position (alas, all my positions are "modest").
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