Antares Pharma, Inc. (ATRS)

[scubastevo80]

Hi all - ATRS shareholder since AIS, long time board follower. I just wanted to share my thoughts on stock price based on some recent modeling around Otrexup. Thanks to bsav for his modeling, much of which mine is based on.

I won't rehash Otrexup for RA, but I show that contributing about $12 in share price ($200M sales, .67 EPS contribution, P/E 20).

With respect to Otrexup for psoriasis, below is my model.

No. of ppl w/ psoriasis - 7.5M
% taking MTX - 13%
% to use Otrexup for psoriasis - 15% mkt share capture
Annual patient cost - $1200
Gross revs @ peak - $175M (7.5M x .13 x .15 x 1200)
Profit margin - 55%, Tax - 25%
Net profit 72M, or .52c EPS contribution
Multiplied by P/E of 20 is $10.3 contribution to share price.

In summary - Otrexup, granted it has good market penetration for multiple indications, should be worth $20 towards ATRS's share price.