Stress test results. FnF can pay back tsy in 4-5 years or less.
Unfortunately, everyone ignores this.
I doubt that many are ignoring this. What I think many are ignoring is that Washington may not be satisfied with the net investment theory. I think you and others are assuming that the situation remains static until then.
IMO, the Treasury will come up with a plan before then. They could say that they will gradually wind down FnF to zero over a number of years. They could add that any fears that the taxpayers have that they will not be paid back their investment should be allayed by the exact same stress test results, and that in fact FnF could give the taxpayers a profit before they are eliminated.
I think what everyone needs to ask themselves is do you think the US Treasury wants to see FnF eliminated? And secondly, why do I think they will be unsuccessful?
I think the consensus in Washington is that they want us replaced. I think the power structure there looks at the same stress test and says "good we a decent chance of getting our money back before we kill them."
I think in some way we need to get some representation. I tweeted the Nick Timiraos from the WSJ yesterday and asked that he do an article from the FnF shareholders perspective. If the Treasury comes up with a plan along the guidelines of the proposal released this week, the plan will be in stone. I think there are good reasons why Lew will want to do something this year. To Washington that would make the administration look good.
This is what I am thinking. Every 10Q and 10K always tells of the risk factors. This is what I see as risk factors. Right now FnF profits are good but I don't think the necessarily point to a recovery for the shareholders with everything that I have seen come from the the govt and those connected. Some here say they only want to hear facts. The FHFA and Treasury's actions are facts. Those are being ignored.
The item Kissing posted is encouraging.
At (this) time, FHFA indicated that a GSE’s conservatorship will end when the Director determines that FHFA’s plan to restore the GSE to a safe and solvent condition has been completed
Wouldn't it be nice if we could find a away to get the shareholders message out there that we are at a safe and solvent condition and FnF should be given a plan to exit conservatorship while paying back the shareholders.
