Tappy,
Please don't sound so dismissive remarks to another poster- I didn't appreciate your quick judgement on this board (I am not a basher- I told you I am a long term share holder), or you referring to my comments as silly in the YMB. Very rude- I did not expect that from you. I brought forward real concerns...that, may I remind you...ANTARES brings up in their own annual report for market risks.
It doesn't make sense to me why you would be so heavily weighted against anyone bringing up real concerns. If they are not concerns, why would ANTARES list them as such (beyond requirement by SEC)?
Anyway, here is a quick run-down of my main points:
o This year will be a volatile year for ANTARES due to positive catalysts and valuations (the costs of revenue will most likely see a spike higher), and revenues will not be enough to offset costs to warrant such a high price); therefore buying now is pointless- the price is not at "firesale" levels.
- Fact: ANTARES assesses 2012 annual revenue will be between $19.5-21.5 million (30-50% increase in profit from 2011's $16.5 million).
- Fact: With zero profits, ANTARES is currently trading at a trailing P/E in the stratosphere. Given 125.14 million shares, ANTARES would have to earn .50/share to warrant even a P/E of 8 at a 4.00 pps. As a growth company, given a 30 P/E, they would have to earn at least .13/share. ANTARES will not hit any of these values for years, if ever, even with OTREXUP sales killing it. Am I wrong? Am I being too harsh?
- Fact:Cost of product sales and expenses came to $20.8 million in 2011, and rose in 2012, only to rise higher in 2013.
- Fact: ANTARES must earn at least .50/share to warrant a
o Assume that ANTARES will receive positive feedback from the FDA (I concur with everyone's posts- thanks TD, shadow and loko for great run downs
o Assume OTREXUP is ready for market late this year or even next year
I don't see ANTARES pulling off a big jump in pps that sticks. There may be a quick run-up, but it will be followed by a quick retracement, albeit to a higher low.
I just don't see how you are so confident in your investment. Again, I'm not bashing this stock. I just don't understand it. I have purchased shares and am sitting at a decent cost basis, but how will this stock get to $5-8 in the year without solid NET PROFITS to knock it out of the park?
I am holding this baby because I am confident in it's long term potential, especially as it unwinds partnerships to own its own products and establish its own footprint beyond royalties.
I am looking beyond these NDA announcements and such, which IMO, do nothing to coax me to add to my position until I see real profits come in. I don't advise anyone else to add to their position until there is some real headway in this regard. (unless you have hundreds of thousands to risk like most of the posters on this board have...)
I don't mean to come off as flippant, but it doesn't seem to me that anyone is addressing the revenue cost issue; only in the weeds on the potential success of Otrexup and NDA catalysts.
If my math is off, please call me out on this stuff. I'm here to learn, but please don't cast this post off as a bash. That's not what I'm here to do. If I was talking to you in person, I would argue the same issues face to face.
Naz
