Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[stolpen]

Depends on what ends you strive to meet.
If its only to prove someone wrong so no...
If it is to strengthen your own view of a perfect value at this point in time for yourself so probably.


The easiest way to figure it out are a 2 part endeavor:
Part1:
First take consultancy and construction and compare the sum to 1 year fully ramped up operation of the jv.
Do the same calc on 5 years.
Do the same calc on 10 years.
Do the same calc on 20 years.
Are the %tual outcome significant compared to the reoccuring operation at the 20 year count? is it by then worth counting anymore? How long are the timeframe for a DCF calculation?

Part2: Not only are the ways to find an intrinsic value almost infinite, its best modelled by ones own view aswell.
A margin of safety often consist of a 10-50% rebate after your value is found.

Definition of 'Margin Of Safety'
A principle of investing in which an investor only purchases securities when the market price is significantly below its intrinsic value. In other words, when market price is significantly below your estimation of the intrinsic value, the difference is the margin of safety. This difference allows an investment to be made with minimal downside risk.

The term was popularized by Benjamin Graham (known as "the father of value investing") and his followers, most notably Warren Buffett. Margin of safety doesn't guarantee a successful investment, but it does provide room for error in an analyst's judgment. Determining a company's "true" worth (its intrinsic value) is highly subjective. Each investor has a different way of calculating intrinsic value which may or may not be correct. Plus, it's notoriously difficult to predict a company's earnings. Margin of safety provides a cushion against errors in calculation.
Investopedia explains 'Margin Of Safety'
Margin of safety is a concept used in many areas of life, not just finance. For example, consider engineers building a bridge that must support 100 tons of traffic. Would the bridge be built to handle exactly 100 tons? Probably not. It would be much more prudent to build the bridge to handle, say, 130 tons, to ensure that the bridge will not collapse under a heavy load. The same can be done with securities. If you feel that a stock is worth $10, buying it at $7.50 will give you a margin of safety in case your analysis turns out to be incorrect and the stock is really only worth $9.

There is no universal standard to determine how wide the "margin" in margin of safety should be. Each investor must come up with his or her own methodology.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marginofsafety.asp#ixzz2LxEAftEi