Below is what I believe to be a reasonable example (I'm sure an incredulous example to rearview) of how the Antares story could play out through 2018. Will there be stumbling blocks along the way? Sure. Will I nail each of the years, product-by-product? Heck no. Each time I revise my numbers, whether on individual products or a particular fiscal year, I try to be very conservative and look for revenues to shave off the top line. For example, I have excluded future milestone payments; accelerated HgH revenues after launch of 10mg dose, additional Anturol ROW partnerships; EU, South American, and other ROW partnerships in connection with Otrexup; etc. I have also excluded revenues from the Pfizer OTC drug (e.g., Advil Gel), as well as QS M, QS4, NestraGel, LibiGel. Like Paul Wotton and his team, I'd rather my estimates be understated, as it will help me be patient while the story unfolds.
Past reported revenues In the bag:
2008 -- $4.6M
2009 -- $8.3M (47% increase)
2010 -- $12.8M (54% increase)
2011 -- $16.5M (28% increase)
2012 -- Expected to grow 30%-50%
My future estimates:
2012 -- $22.5M (36% YOY increase)
2013 -- $32M (42% increase)
2014 -- $151M (277% increase)
2015 -- $401M (165% increase)
2016 -- $642.5M (60% increase)
2017 -- $951M (48% increase)
2018 > $1B
And here are the details:
2012 Gross Revenues (excludes Pfizer and Teva milestone payments)
$15M........HgH
$6.75M.....Gelnique (maybe lower due to more discounts in connection with the marketing efforts)
$0.75M.....Elestrin
$22M...2012 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues (also includes Gelnique milestone revenues)
2013 Gross Revenues
$17M...HgH (Teva's HgH for "big kids" included)
$2M.....EpiPen device margins (Paul said the pre-launch orders will be large)
$3M.....Vibex 2 (assuming FDA approval soon, this sure is taking a long time)
$9M.....Gelnique (will have better forecast after our 10k and CC)
$1M.....Elestrin
$32M...2013 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues (I removed $8M from my earlier projection, which I attributed to an early Otrexup launch, best to be conservative)
2014 Gross Revenues
$18M......HgH global royalties and margin from device and component sales
$2M........EpiPen device margins
$5M........Vibex2 U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
$10M......Gelnique/Anturol global royalties
$1M........Elestrin royalties
$115M......OTREXUP U.S. sales (continue to ramp up sales)
$151M...2014 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues
2015 Gross Revenues
$20M......HgH global royalties and margin from device and component sales
$4M........EpiPen U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
$10M......Vibex2 U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
$4.5M.....Pen2 royalties and margin from device sales (EU only in 2015)
$11M......Gelnique/Anturol global royalties
$1.5M.....Elestrin royalties
$350M....OTREXUP U.S. sales (The new OTREXUP revenue projections that I posted a couple weeks ago are the primary reason for my revised revenues through 2018.)
$401M...2015 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues
2016 Gross Revenues
$21M...........HgH global royalties and margin from device and compenent sales
$20M...........EpiPen U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
$12M...........Vibex2 U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
$4.5M..........Pen1 royalties and margin from device sales
$20M...........Pen2 U.S. & EU royalties and margin from device sales
$13M...........Gelnique/Anturol global royalties
$2M.............Elestrin royalties
$400M.........OTREXUP U.S. sales
$150M.........QST (begin ramp up to at least 7% market capture and 50/50 partnership)
??.................Pfizer OTC, likely Advil Gel (Paul stated the deal with PFE is "significant")
$642.5M....2016 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues
2017 Gross Revenues
$22M.........HgH global royalties and margin from device and component sales
$25M.........EpiPen U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
$17M.........Vibex2 U.S. royalties and margin from device sales
$20M.........Pen1 royalties and margin from device sales
$25M.........Pen2 U.S. & EU royalties and margin from device sales
$15M.........Gelnique/Anturol global royalties
$2M...........Elestrin royalties
$425M.......OTREXUP U.S. sales
$400M.......QST (completed ramp up to 7% and looking to gain more market share)
??...............QS M (this proprietary neurological product to be identified soon)
$0..............QS4 (this proprietary product to be identified this year)
??..............Advil Gel
??..............NestraGel (I believe this asset has lost its value, but I can't see all the cards)
??..............LibiGel (same as above)
??..............Copaxone (I had to put this one in for Loko, though I haven't a clue whether there will be a sixth deal with Teva that will involve an Antares reconstituting injector for Copaxone)
$951M.......2017 gross sales, margin and royalty revenues
2018 Gross Revenues > $1B (may include launch of ATRS's 4th proprietary product, undisclosed QS4)
Patience - This rocket is making its way to the launch pad.
Bsav88atty
