Dynavax Technologies Corp (DVAX)

[oldberkeley]

P.- Thanks much. Whether it's DVAX or any other stock, my pet peeve is mindless and manipulative bashing or pumping. As a very knowledgeable iHub poster likes to say, both just waste bandwidth.

Large investment firms spend millions seeking out both the bull and the bear cases on companies they're considering. No yelling or screaming, no over-emotional lying or pleading, no phrases like "going to the moon" or "my gut tells me." Instead a fact-based presentation of the buy or sell thesis, where clear evidence determines the decision.

Unfortunately this is generally not the message board culture, on iHub and many other sites. We instead see a one-sided, somewhat hysterical presentation more akin to a late-night infomercial than a business meeting. Only the very exaggerated bull position is tolerated, with even the most well-reasoned objections being labeled as bashing.

This is not the way to make financial decisions. Rant over.

I agree with you about the DVAX ADCOM: we'll probably never know what went on behind the scenes or fully comprehend all the politics and complex business relationships involved in the decision. It was a stinker!

I had a ridiculously large, short-term position that I was planning to sell immediately after the ADCOM. I was not willing to sell at $1.75 or $2 and take that kind of massive loss, and I felt reasonably certain that cooler heads would prevail and the PPS would rise from there. I was hoping that we'd see a move to the $4 area, but there was an obvious and firm ceiling around $3.

At that point it all became about my own personal risk/reward calculations. (I'm not trying to tell anyone else what to do, how would I know their individual investment standards?) This is such a crapshoot, it could go either way, and as much as I hated to take the loss it was preferable to the very real risk of a CRL and another drop to the $1.50 - $2 area.

If you or anyone else on the board is still holding I wish you well, I never root for someone to lose money, and you very well may be making the right decision and I'm going to be kicking myself next week when the stock goes to $5. But it was too dicey for me.

Best of luck!