Friday, February 22, 2013 5:08:42 PM
This reference and prognostication is my personal IMO prediction (IMO) for Q4 2012 based on company activities in the Quarter 4 2012 and current Q1 2013. Utilized for mty estiamteions are the company Blogsand my personal observations of the app ranks from appshopper.com, appannie.com, and other websites as they pertain to my estimates for revenues. I am also assuming Apple is contimues paying MRNJ for a month's sales, ~ 45 days after a month finishes (estimate I received from IR) and Android delay is about 30 days (per IR response). For Earnings, MRNJ reports app sales and revenues when they receive the payments. For example, for Q4 2012 earnings, I am anticipating that revenues reported will actually represent Apple's payment of App sales for approximately mid-September through mid-November and Android form Oct-Nov. So, important to be aware of time period difference between blog reports (which are real-time guidance) and "when" those app sales increases are reflected in quarterly earnings. Neither good nor bad, just need to be congnizant of it.
I have have now added in my early thoughts on Q2 2013 reported revenues and some far off thinking on 2013 Annual. Be aware that I am not an analyst or financial wizard by any strecth of the imagination, just merely a shareholder that has been following the company's growth closely over the past 3 years. I am opting to be as conservative as possible with my predictions, but please do your own due diligence when making any decisions.
Thoughts on Q4 2012
Well, if you go by a 45 day lag time for Apple to pay MRNJ, then we should see this earnings report reflect, at least for the app sales component of the business, app sales from September 15, 2012 - November 15, 2012. Given the real-time updates we have received from MRNJ on app sales, particularly in September and October, I feel comfortable with my revenue estimate of somwhere in the $175K - $190K range for what will be reported in the Q4 2012 earnings.
This time period will include sales from Giovanni Lordi Mega-app, Ultimate Weight Loss Mega-App, first large scale Eckhart Tolle ETV promotion, and 45 days of impacts from push notifications for the Oct 1- Nov 15th time period.
Obviously, Apple could speed up their payment process or slow it down going forward, so I am assuming there has been no change to that process.
So...for Q4 2012, I am predicting MRNJ to report $185,012 in revenues, compared to $115,545 for Q4 2011. This would (IMO), if my prediction is right, be a +60% increase YOYin revenue growth.
2012 Annual Revenues
9 months are in the official earnings books and we stand at $423,780. If you add my prediction for Q4 2012 to this total, you will get $608,762, or a +12.5% increase over 2011. yes, a little pain as
Thoughts on Q1 2013
To see the impact on a quarterly report of more Mega-apps and Auto Post, etc. going on-line in Nov/Dec 2012, we may have to wait until Q1 2013 report assuming Apple continues with its 45+ day delay on payment of app sales. Assuming the Apple delays continue, this quarterly report may more or less represent Apple App sales from November 16, 2012 - Feb 15, 2013 and Android sales from Dec 1 - Feb 28, 2013....approximately. In this 90-day period, MRNJ realizes the big X-mas Holiday app buying boost and Android Mega-apps. Considering all the real-time app sales we are hearing about in the Blog, I am comfortable with figuring over $62K in app sales for the first 2/3rds of the period and over 70K for the last 30 day period here. Based on Jan/Feb blogs, Jan 2013 was +17.5% higher than the previous record month (possibly October), and I think that puts it well above the 70K range. With new Android Mega's impacting revenues in late Dec and Jan/Feb, I am going with $209K for the Q1 2013 report (we will see that officially reported in May 2013). This will represent a +60% revenue increase YOY compared to Q1 2012.
Thoughts on Q2 2013
yikes, this is going out to June 2013. Only thing I have faith in for sure is contuined groeth in Gh and ET revs, so I am only assuming +20% sequential growth in revs from Q1 2013. So, I am predciitng $250,800, or a +82% increase in revenues from Q1 2013. This is VERY preliminary.
2013 Annual Revenues
Prognosticating out this far is a real stretch if you ask me, so I am assuming the following: Just organic growth via the mega-app concept and am not figuring any of the big ticket items into the estimate (Major funding, Appflix, Fit Flix, Zukav, Gov't contracts). Just too much unknown for me at this point. My biggest expectation is MRNJ will be able to monetize GH's stuff even further, to the tune of approaching sales of $4K a day at some point in 2013. So, yeah, this is all real sketchy, but in the interest of putting out a lowball full year reveue estimate, well, here it is. Based on a $209,00 expectation for Q1 2013, I am assuming sequential quarterly revenue growth of 20% each of the successive latter 3 quarters of the year. In doing so, I am predicting 1.2 million in reveues for 2013, which equates to +80% YOY Annual Growth (2013 vs. 2012).
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However, I expect we will continue to get real-time updates and trends from the company on how app sales. The real-time is real nice if you think about it, kind of a forward looking guidance out into the future quite a ways as far as what to expect in official earnings reports.
As usual, the projection on the chart above is my current, as of 02/22/2013 'base' CONSERVATIVE expectation for Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, Q2 2013, and 2013 Annual. I am hopeful that I am finally being conservative enough. And at this point, I have no idea how net income is going to turn out, so I am not going to even try hazarding a guess.
Thank you and other perspectives, expectations, discussion welcomed.
StormKing
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