Treaty Energy Corp. (fka TECO)

[Belize Oilwatch]

The chance of Treaty hitting commercially viable oil in their next well in Belize is about 1 in 20 (5% chance of success) - in my opinion.

My assessment of this number is driven by:

(1) Commercial oil has never been found before in this areas of Belize
[12 wells have been drilled to date offshore and onshore in this province,resulting in 3 dry holes, 9 with oil shows but no commercial oil]

(2) This area is in a different Sedimentary Basin (Belize Basin) to the one which contains the Spanish lookout and Never Delay oilfields which are on production for BNE (Corozal Basin) and it contains different rock types (Predominatly Carbonates in the Corozal Basin vs. Turbidite deposits and Carbonates in the Belize Basin)

(3) Nearby wells San Juan #1 and #2 did not find moveable oil

(4) Treaty did not run seismic [to reduce the risk and increase the chance of success]

With oil shows the majority of wells in the area, clearly the oil source in Belize is not the main risk with Treaty's exploration program. In my opinion, the main risks are:
(A) trap and migration path [normally investigated with seismic before drilling] and
(B) reservoir rock quality [normally investigated by studying offset wells and by drilling].

I have tried to stick to the facts above as much as possible. The overall assessment is my opinion as a Certified Petroleum Engineer.