Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[nuke661]

RCJ,

Thanks. I very much hope I get a response. exwannabe seems to me to be very versed in these matters and I believe we need to be challenged in our beliefs by people who know this stuff. I have put a lot of money into Peregrine over the years and I need to know if the information that I am currently using as the foundation to continue investing in Peregrine is valid or not.

We obviously are having a credibility problem with the biotech retail market. I'm not versed enough or equipped with information sources to allow me to know whether the "smart" money is buying in while we are declining or if its just market makers absorbing the blow (as is their job) and churning the stock with the day traders on the way down.

I'm not usually into conspiracy theories (not saying I don't do my share of wondering about who is playing us or messing with us) but after seeing yesterday that someone posted on Team Inspire on 2-6-13 the AF article, from right after the Sept 24 coding errors were announced, its got to get one wondering. See this link:

http://www.inspire.com/groups/lung-cancer-survivors/discussion/on-different-trials-and-such/

After all this time, why would someone post that info on Team Inspire just coincidentally prior to the PC and 2nd line NSCLC trial info was being released? Seems too much of a coincidence to me. Smacks of someone putting pressure on Peregrine not to think about going it alone in the PIII trial business by poisoning the waters so to speak with the lung cancer patient community because they have a credibility problem.

Peregrine is in a tough situation and the BPs know it. Long retail stockholders are also in a tough position -again- because Peregrine has to keep funding operations.

I do believe that the with the 2nd line NSCLC and PC trials over and the 1st line winding down to the finish, that the expenditures on trials is greatly reduced for the near term thus reducing the cash burn rate and Avid business is doing very well to help with operating costs.

However, I still believe we are getting close to the point very soon (next couple of months) where we need to refill the coffers to keep a minimum of 1 year operating funds available.

I believe our share price reflects the mood of the BP decision makers regarding the data otherwise I believe the positive feelings from these decision makers would be reflected somewhere in pricing or options volume (drastically increased options volume).

Peregrine has said they don't believe that they'll have a meeting with the FDA until mid year. With only a 60 day advance notice required to set up that meeting that means to me that they haven't made the meeting request yet. Mid year to me means June/July (p value of .7; that's a joke just in case someone didn't take it that way). I know that some of you are going to say mid year could mean April or May, but I'll stick with the literal interpretation for now.

That's way beyond the 60 days SK has previously stated that it would take to arrange such a meeting especially when they could have made the call to set it up a couple of weeks ago at least.

In my opinion they are waiting on the 1st line NSCLC data timeline to firm up so they can arrange to have that data with them at the meeting. Good strategy for Peregrine and Bavi but bad stately for share price in the near term.

All this means to me that we are risking a no news period here for a couple of months in which time the very real possibility exists of having to announce the ATM is being used at the next CC to continue to fund operations. This very possible scenario certainly is not helping our share price. I understand there can be some surprises like a good Cotara deal announcement or some exciting IST trial data, etc... but that is a big unknown and will be reflected as big risk in the share price IMO.

However, if one is truly a believer in the validity of the Peregrine data (you have faith that we are not being hoodwinked by the PPHM board members) then these next 2-3 months are probably going to be the last chance to acquire stock at fire sale prices.

If Bavi is the real thing (like Coke), then after the FDA gives PIII go ahead I believe the stock should solidly stay above 3 dollars (absolute minimum without a partnership based on recent pricing) until PIII news starts rolling in.