Petro Rio S.A. ADR fka HRPTY

[ghillaman]

I've been following this board and slowly building a position (IMO a great opportunity to add right now). I made a very nice return on UNX energy and sold when HRT acquired their Nambian assets and believe HRT's Marcio Mello knows his geology and has the best team in the business. This play also has serious institutional investors like GS who understand risk and that the potential tail is so promising that it warrants a serious consideration. In fact if anyone has read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Antifragile" this is exactly the kind of risk that an astute investor should look for: limited downside but potentially parabolic upside. I'm in.

A few quotes from Taleb:

"What they call "risk" I call opportunity; but what they call "low risk" opportunity I call a sucker problem."

In other words seek out risk when it presents a parabolic upside. Use risk to one's advantage.

"Anyone voicing a forecast or expressing an opinion without something at risk has some element of phoniness. Unless he risks going down with the ship this would be like watching an adventure movie."

To me this means you don't have the right to criticize a speculation if you aren't involved.

"The left holds that because markets are stupid models should be smart; the right believes that because models are stupid markets should be smart. Alas, it never hit both sides that both markets and models are very stupid."

My fellow speculators, the "market" is presenting us with an opportunity to prove the above quotation correct.

Good luck to all.

Ghillaman