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Copper hits record high, shrugs off China news
Fri Nov 11, 2005 8:45 AM ET
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By Martin Hayes
LONDON (Reuters) - Global copper prices sped to record highs above $4,000 a ton on Friday after Chile, the world's leading producer of the metal, pared output forecasts.
News of Chile's downgrade on Thursday overshadowed moves by China's State Reserves Bureau (SRB) to sell some of its holdings to drive down the soaring price of the metal, which is widely used in construction and electrical applications.
Chile's government copper commission, Cochilco, saw Chile's production this year falling to 5.372 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 5.504 million.
By 1300 GMT benchmark three months delivery copper on the London Metal Exchange had settled at $4,067 a ton, well up from $4,008 last on Thursday.
Cash metal, which is boosted by a sky-high premium, hit $4,271, the highest price ever paid for copper.
"This is despite Chinese comments over the selling of significant futures positions into the market with the proposed intention to deliver material into these short positions," analyst John Meyer of Numis Securities said.
China's SRB holds more than 1.3 million tonnes of copper and will consider increasing and speeding up sales if the price continues to soar, a senior bureau official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.
"Traders do not believe (these) reports from China's SRB... China does not normally reveal its State Reserve Bureau figures and the market believes that the SRB is trying desperately to talk the market down," Meyer said.
CHINESE PUZZLE
The SRB official, however, said the bureau had to keep at least one million tonnes of copper as basic stocks. "We can sell any copper in excess of that amount," he said.
A fund source said: "This is an attempt to put a cap on the price, but it is not working. What you should do is sell the copper first, then tell the market what you have done -- not the other way round."
Copper inventories in the warehouses of the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped another 8,594 tonnes to 73,434 tonnes in the week ended Thursday. That followed a rise in stocks of 31,975 tonnes in the previous two weeks.
"There is a speculation that the SRB wants to push the market down and buy back to cover its short positions when the price actually plunges...that's the reason why prices aren't falling," said a trader at a Japanese trading house.
OTHER METALS, MINING EQUITIES STRONG
Analyst William Adams of BaseMetals.com said that as zinc was also strong, hitting eight-year highs at $1,611, the metals market appeared to be entering another bullish phase.
"Although it is hard to justify this strength, until something changes the mind-set of the investment community, prices may well push higher -- but as they do, expect increased volatility," he said.
The fund source said metals such as aluminum, around 10-year highs at $2,037, and zinc were more attractive for funds as they were considerably cheaper.
"Funds are not aggressively buying copper -- they are just topping up long positions," he added.
Shares in mining equities also gained -- with Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) up 25 pence at 2,297p, Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rising 19p to 1,537p and BHP-Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) eight pence up at 833p.
(Additional reporting by Polly Yam in Hong Kong, Chikafumi Hodo in Tokyo and Jae Hur in Singapore)
