NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[JG36]

Two years to a cure? That sounds wildly optimistic. Here's my best case scenario:

Toxicity testing actually done and completed by the end of 2013.

Manufacturing facility completed *and passing all certifications* by the end of 2014.

Phase 1 trials done by the middle of 2015.

New round of share dilution. Management announces they have enough money to keep going for 2 more years.

Phase 2 trials done by the middle of 2016.

New round of share dilution, hopefully at a better price than 0.45.

Phase 3 trials done by the middle of 2017.

FDA mulls over the data for 6 months. Approval comes at the end of 2017.

A cure for the flu is ready for delivery in 2018.

So, five years to a cure. If all goes swimmingly well.

Seriously, I never see each testing "phase" of any new drug take less than a year, no matter what the drug. It takes a long time to get together a team of doctors, recruit the patients, get the data, analyze the data, get the FDA to sign off on the results, yada, yada. And no, I'm not talking about cancer or heart disease trials where each phase might take years.