Aiming, Concerning PTIE, disregard what I said in that last post about the possible need for a Phase 2 on a new Remoxy formulation. Some of the articles today confirmed that they're going into the 2nd Phase 3 in January, and plan to file for approval in '07. (I still need to listen to the Conf call). But it looks like we can lay the formulation question to rest once and for all (and King wouldn't have done the deal if the formulation was severely screwed up). The King deal includes not only Remoxy but potentially some other abuse-resistant opioids, so the reference to Phase 2 in the press release refers to any newer compounds (with PTIE bringing them through Phase 2, and King taking over for Phase 3).
The other thing that was bothering me was the seemingly low royalty rate (15% on the first Bil in sales and 20% thereafter). Rstor1 over on the other thread pointed out however that King will pay for the marketing and manufacturing costs (plus the royalty due Durect), so the deal is really closer to a 50/50 split when you get to the bottom line.
I still haven't gotten any answers on the Oxytrex endpoint question (the change from superiority in pain relief to reduced dependence/tolerance), and whether the FDA has approved this change. But I figure Barbier must have consulted with the FDA to get the endpoint changed, and so must have at least a verbal OK from them (I guess).
Anyway, bottom line, after selling my meager 250 shares at $9.10 this morning, I reloaded with 500 shares in the afternoon at $8.42, which for me represents a full long term position (since I now own 17 other stocks, I have them spread out pretty thin :o) King shareholders apparently think they overpaid for Remoxy, and their share price dropped today. One article said they felt they paid $150 mil too much (the total deal was for up to $400 mil). Their loss is our gain :o)
I figure with this deal in place, most of the long term risk is out of the stock, and it's still VERY cheap considering the blockbuster potential of Remoxy. There's still some short term risk with the Oxytrex and PTI-901 data coming out soon, but with Remoxy cruising toward approval, the fallout from an Oxytrex or PTI-901 failure next month will be muted. The upside from an Oxytrex or PTI-901 success is gigantic however, so you have to like the risk/reward here.
With the recent news on P-mab, I feel the same about Abgenix, so I've just added them to my portfolio of stocks for the longer term (now up to 18 stocks).
