Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[bimerkjaere]

I don't believe that there currently is negative insider news floating on pphm to keep it around $2.00. The general investment community lost faith in mngt and bavi after the trial discrepancies, punishing the stock to lows around $0.8. Basically, they (investors) felt like pphm could be years away from moving bavi to a ph III if the 2nd-line trial needs to be redone and 1st-line NSCLC and pancreatic miss on MOS endpoints. If that is true, then $1 or less is warranted, however, mgnt has indicated they believe the data supports Ph III advancement (thus the $2 price), but investors are not yet convinced.

So what happens next? If the next PR indicates green light for Ph III 2nd-line or 1st-line NSCLC MOS is 4-5 mos better than control or pancreatic is 3+ mos better than control, then we will see prices returning to $5 in a hurry. If any of the above is coupled, we should clear $8 with ease. Finally, a BP announcement adds even more credence to the bavi story, also pushing SP higher.

Ok, that is the positive. If we don't here that 1st-line NSCLC or pancreatic is trending nicely at the upcoming investor conferences in March and no word on 2nd-line decision by FDA, I think we could easily stay at $1.50-$2 for the entire 1H13.

My prediction for an end-of-year SP for 2013 will be >$9 (70%) or <$1 (30%)

IMO