Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[jaybe]

Is Seeking Alpha guy serious about $11.40 for Iclueliss?

From article..."ARIA has stated that the mean duration of treatment associated with Ponatinib will be 3 years, on average patients will receive 6 months of treatment every year..."

Uh no...and no.

Projected sales modeled with 3 years of treatment is not the same as the mean duration. The mean duration in the PACE trial has not yet been reached. Also new patients receive 6 mos. of treatment in first year because they start in each of the 12 months of the year. After first year the model should include full 12 months of drug for all patients.

I think his NPV of $11.40 per share needs a major adjustment.