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Re: kron7777 post# 4507

Friday, 02/01/2013 2:52:49 PM

Friday, February 01, 2013 2:52:49 PM

Post# of 47873
I know you are talking about volume of sales, which will move forward bigtime from here. But lets look at volume on the chart.

I use volume to tell me where interest is.

Now most people "Invest", and the trading desks out there at the MMs all use 20 period, 50 period, and 200 periods on their charts. You can just count on this being them case.

What I do is, for multi day or multi week plays, I look to see where the 200 MA is, if for no other reason than to know what the rest of the world is doing.

So, using the 20, the 50, and the 200, the chart today did this:

20 day: 1.32
50 day: 1.27
200 day: 1:23

Now I think this thing is under professional MM attack & here is why. Put it up on a 10 period chart and look at it.

In the first 3 10 period candles, the MMs took it precicely to the 200 day.

The LOD was during the first 30 minutes.

At 9:59:18, to be precise, where they traded it for an instant, trading 4000 shares there.

Trading has dried up, for all intents and purposes, which is fairly typical of a mid-day session.

Now here's a trick to use. A trading day is 390 minutes long. So, if you try to use 20 period, 50 period, or 200 period MA on an day trading chart, you get unevenly sized delimitations.

I use only period numbers that factor into 390 evenly. 3, 5, 6 10, 13 and so on.

It works a bit like when you had a microscope in biology lab and you could click thru the lenses and change the magnification.

Use a 3 minute period and look at today's chart.

Here's what pops out.

In the first 3 minutes, they took it down on 53,318 volume (remember, I said I was going to use chart volume)

The next 3 minutes, they took it back up from 1.23 (the 200 period MA) to 1.32 (the 20 period MA).

See?

Professionally and precisely done using the normal MAs of 20 & 200.

They opened it down to the 200 day and took it on the bounce back to the 20 day.

Spot on.

The key to the thing, though, is that the bounce-back was on 77,541 volume.

Think about it.
Down on 53K and up on 77K

The bounce saw 45% mor volume.

Anyone who ever worked the floor of the CBOT can relate.... there is a shout as the traders bid it down in a rush and that is replied to immediately with a 45% louder bellow of buyers.

53 thousand yelling "Sell! Sell!!" and 77 thousand yelling "Buy! Buy!!"

Anyone want to get a lenghty dpose of this approach, go to http://www.tfnn.com and listen to Tommy O'Brien at market close every night.

Rule of thumb: if it goes down on 53K and comes back on 77K, you have seen the wrost of the price action. The buyers down here outweigh the sellers.

And this is confirmed by volume behavious at or around the 200 day every time it touched that today so far.

Every time, all day thusfar, they have taken it to 1.22 or 1.23, it has seen an immediate buying volume increase that moved price back up.

Every time.

So far, this thing has been testing and retesting the 200 day, and every test is weaker and every test has been met by a rejection of the attempt to take if further down.

Now there could be a massive bear raid.

I never call the future. I only look at what is really going on in the chart volumes, and in this case, the MMs have been showing progressively less and less strength each time they attempt to bop it down thru the 200 day.

Its like one of those red & white fishing bobbers that pops back up every time.

So, thats what it looks like from my approach to charting.

Until or unless it succeeds in punching out the 200 day, this puppy has done the take-away work and the next leg is either going to be sideways or back up.

Imperial Whazoo

"Just my opinions, folks. Do your own due diligence & make your own decisions. DO NOT... I repeat... DO NOT make any investment decisions on my comments. They are my opinions. That's all they are... OPINIONS."

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