Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

Short Interest Revisited

I have been analyzing PPHM's short interest evolution and tried to figure out the difference between bear short volume and MM short volume.

I use this raw data source of day-by-day short interest data:
Fill in PPHM, then use Show Large Chart or click the Dump Fails Raw Data button

Those that can read the raw data will quickly find out that large coordinated short attack on PPHM seem to have less and less impact and actually this bear short volume is almost totally neglectable compared to Market Market naked shorting. More about that below.

A good example is Dec 3rd, 2012 where we have our PPHM meeting and the stock jumps from 1.16$ to 1.50$. The day after we have a 1.8Milj shares short raid that only brings us down 3 cent. As one can see the further movement down is almost without significant short volume and due to profit taking and swing trading. Because apparently PPHM investors better monitor, set or removed their STOPS the bear raids start to miss impact.

The Market Makers have been brought into problems several times over the past months and they are the real explanation for our current short interest 8+Milj shares and our current FORCED pps platforming.

Before I point to a PPHM specific example the link below explains what the relation is between short interest and LONG (not initial SHORT) volume and the Market Maker dilemma as he MUST make market.

Source text

Those who understand this now also understand why a stock never goes up in a straight line, neither comes down in a straight line unless in HALTED situations.

A good example can be found in the period Aug 22th tot Sept 19th, 2012, the period toward our Sept 7th Bavi conference and announcement and the days following it. Notice the large short volumes during clear PPS upwards movements (last colon). In that period the MM had to short a lot of shares to accommodate for the demand and the Sept 24th (black Monday) must have made some a lot of money because they could fill cheap to deliver/cover.

Not difficult to see that we came down from 5.40$ tot sub 1$ without almost no short volume. We were NOT shorted down. The institutionals sold off and the MM filled their short volumes and after that there was no need for shorting as MM had large long positions.

Only on Oct 2nd when the news of the loan comes under the attention of the public, event of 4 business days before according SEC listing, we have a bear attack of 2+Milj shares initiating our decent to 0.68$. This was a bear attack on news and didn't miss its effect because the volume of the weak hands came immediately available.

Those that need more confirmation may want to enlarge the chart and scroll to the end (right) and see how the large short peeks go hand in hand with the price peeks. As I have been saying since months, there are no sellers for PPHM, a lot of shares are locked in portfolios and the PPHM investors seem to be aware of what is coming. Therefor the volume is made by raids, trading on news, MM filling new buyers (and shorting to be able to do that) and the in and outs of institutional investors.

The past weeks MM have been filling their short positions they had to take since Jan 7th announcement, the 8+Milj short interest per Jan 15th, 2013.

It becomes more clear now who is driving the price back each time due to a shortage of sellers the MM need to naked short into the demand and have to fill (cover) over the period following the peek.