I guess I don't see why that matters. The inference I took from your post is whether or not we can interpret a level of confidence from the size of the milestone payment prior to phase III commencement.
I don't claim to know the answer to that, but I don't think it depends on the market cap of the company receiving the milestone.
Just thinking that, in general, one would expect a biotech with a smaller market cap to likely have less negotiating leverage compared to a biotech with a much higher market cap and so it's more impressive when a smaller biotech is able to negotiate for impressive milestone payments.
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