Celsion Corporation (CLSN)

[sdtrond]

DCups on [another board] has been very pleasant recently, willing to look at his models with a new eye. Posted today that running his model for 11/1/12 with about 400 events AND for 9/15/11 for 219 events both yield placebo at ~18 months and TDox at 26-27 months.

First please note that 18v26 is still successful for HEAT.
12 months placebo has been hashed out so much and I do not want to open that can of worms again. Suffice it to say I'm unwilling to assume it HAS to be 12 months.

My reply, FWIW:

Davis, I would not discount the two timeframes converging on 18 v 26/27.
1) that fits the projected median total time of 22-23 months or so.
2) a very narrow miss at interim fits with Kid's 19v27 post.
3) Several new studies that Sia and others have found make me rethink "12-months-as-gospel." One Chinese one-center study had 95 RFA-only, up to 7cm tumors with a PFS calculated around 25-26 months. Ouch!
4) Most important, having the two timeframes converge really makes my itch go away. If a model "fits" one timeframe but is out of whack for the other, there obviously is something wrong with the assumption in the model.

I'm still bullish, 18v27 would suffice for success, but especially here I'm scaling back any assumptions. My official estimate for your contest is still 14v24ish.