getmenews - $VIX is at 12.46!
A fair number of companies announced earnings last week. Some were large market cap issues (i.e. Wells Fargo). Few had great earnings to share and everyone is wise to their guidance being significantly reduced in advance of the announcement dates. Yet, the $VIX dropped to 12.46. (i.e. "Yawn") The $VIX wasn't at 12.46 already, it dropped to 12.46.
Although I was tempted to enter UVXY long on Friday I will wait until the week of 1/28 or until the weeks of 2/4 or 2/11 contingent on the level of saber rattling, rhetoric, and/or lack-of-progress from Congress on the Debt Ceiling. Based on last week, it seems less than optimal earnings are stoking market complacency as illustrated by the $VIX. The lion's share of earnings announcements are scheduled over the next few weeks and before the Debt Ceiling is reached. (circa 2/15)
I really like HD's bold thinking about GS' influence. Perhaps GS' prescription to congress is for another drama of grand scale around the debt ceiling? This way GS can round-trip the 'crisis' i.e. Play it short on the down swing. Then in a coordinated effort play it long on 'crisis resolution.' (But maybe I am too conspiracy-theory focused)
Summary: More bad earnings = more complacency = $VIX drops more.
Looking for $VIX @ 12.00 or below.
T
AI
