UNXL - after all the extensive pumping and short attack articles on this one I spent 8 hours DDing it over the weekend. I put my emotion out of it and was searching for the answer to whether I buy or hold this one.
I decided to hold. I liken it to trading a developmental stage biotech with a very promising drug. What I find leads me to this thumbnail breakdown.
UNXL is a complete fraud <2% chance
UNXL has real tech but fails to execute 20% chance
UNXL has real tech and major issues scaling 20% chance
UNXL has real tech and minor issues scaling 40% chance
UNXL has real tech and executes near perfect <10% chance
UNXL execute and scales perfectly <5% chance
I decided that for UNXL based on my ~13.00 cost basis, $4 below todays close:
Overall I judged concluded:
Chance I will double my money this year: 20%
Chance I will make money this year: 50%
Chance I will break even/small loss 25%
Chance I will lose my butt <2%
And no none of these equals 100%, but they all come close to 100%
The tech is real. The tech is good. The tech is disruptive. Execution: scaling production, yield, and quality control at scale are the biggest threats and opportunities. The percentages were a way for me to intellectually, quantify the various scenarios in a crudely. They are by no means meant as projections only casino odds on possibilities. They are my WAG's and opinion based on this weekends research. On balance I am holding and I think the potential reward far outweighs the risk. UNXL has had a 47% increase in short interest with only 2 days to close. That shows there are people trying to drag it down. Some as shorts, some I think for an entry. The option action is bullish with a put to call ratio of 0.48 on a close to 300% jump in OI. The persistent and oft repeated rumor is that Dell is the big PC company they inked a deal with. You know how DELL was in the news today. Possibly being taken private. TI will supply the IC controller module and UNXL the actual touch surface interface.
The back and forth in the comments sections of the various SA articles have been a hoot. The short positions are the typical, "it is a fraud and a hoax" without a single shred of evidence. The long positions are often hyperbolic but at least grounded in some verifiable facts. As with everything we hold these days.......we shall see.
