Of course we don’t know how long this 20-week cycle will be until it is over, but this small exploration of the mathematics of cycle shapes reveals why I am expecting a peak towards the end of this year, or early next year.
We can also use Fibonacci ratios to suggest levels at which the peak might form. A 61.8% retracement of the recent downward leg would give a level of 1423, only a few points above this week’s high. Another common Fibonacci ratio is 78.6%, which would result in a peak level of 1445.
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