Dynavax Technologies Corp (DVAX)

[oldberkeley]

All IMHO, FWIW of course: I'd say a 75% - 80% chance of no approval this time around, a 20% - 25% chance of limited approval for the high-risk group.

At this point, for the most part, no approval is already built-in to the PPS. Yes, there would be some drop (depending on the extent of the false-hope run-up!) but certainly nothing like the November debacle.

An unexpected limited approval will cause a pop--again, the extent would depend on how high it was on that day--but I think that the street will immediately recognize two things: first, the potential market is now drastically smaller, and second, DVAX will have to run a long-term, very large, very expensive clinical trial that will almost certainly require new financing. Both these factors will severely limit the upside.

I've made no secret of the fact that I played this one completely wrong. I was looking for a modest gain off of what I and many experts considered a safe bet. Perhaps in biotech there is no such thing.