ajtj99's Market Pulse

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UPDATE Elliottwaves SOX - Semiconductor index

In the last analysis of at the beginning of September was discussed a medium-term Top education with 480/490 points, so that it goes in the autumn months clearly downward. The BREAK of 447 should represent the medium-term starting signal, so that the index continues to look downward.
The fact that it actually gave in September a Top with 486 might not have been surprising, since this was announced for months already. Fortunately the BREAK of 447 without larger hesitating succeeded, so that the index downward is now on the way.

To central and long-term scenario does not have to be shaken, there the price history of the past weeks of this even confirmed have-wave-technically the trend of prices since at the end of of 2001 (!) large and complex correction wave is slammed shut. This wave B has the form of a corrective trifishes. The moderate upward motion since March 2004 becomes as locking wave |E| of B counted.
On view of 18-24 months a Abwaertspotenzial until under 200 points results from this Wavecount. The bullische alternative would be a Downmove to 300/305 points, which however nevertheless a Downmove of minus 40 per cent corresponds starting from the Top.

Illustration 1: Weekly Chart SOX




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The dynamics on the Short side will strengthen, as soon as the index broke through the lower tri fishing delimitation. Charttechnisch results a broad support zone at 400-418 points, ever after like one designs this trend line. Anyhow the BREAK of this support will accelerate the downtrend. Whether the SOX this support in the first approach significantly breaks through is however rather questionable. Typically this succeeds with tri fishing corrections only in the second approach.

On daily basis is to be counted therefore at the latest at approximately 400 points on a clear reaction. It even speaks some for the fact that this return begins in the coming commercial week. Even the market technology is already over-sold, even if it can expand this situation still loosely two weeks. Wave-technically the Low of Friday fulfills all requirements to a complete first Abwaertsfuenfer.
The Korrekturpotenzial for the next 2-3 weeks lies at approximately 447 points, whereby also a terminator point is possible with scarcely 440. Many more importantly however the mark is at 453 points. If this should be exceeded, the favored negative scenario would be neutralized. Up-to-date there are no references for such a rise however.

Illustration 2: DAILY Chart SOX




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Unterm line will note sideways the SOX in the next weeks on the current level under strong fluctuations. Since it concerns however only a Verschnaufpause, further losses are to be taken into account to year end.


Result:
The trend arrow shows clearly downward, at least which concerns the medium-term trend. To end next yearly is realistic losses until at least 300 points. The SOX reached a first catching zone at short notice, so that there is a Verschnaufpause to 447 in the next weeks first.