I have been predicting against some opposition that the DC impasse is likely to prevail and impact equity trading. I do NOT believe that this is a forever scenario, but I don't see any comprehensive agreement until public outcry ensues in January and these politicos on both sides of the aisle fear their re-electablity and agree to "something" in February or March.
The legacy holders are both numerous and huge, IMHO, many being old WAG employees and Walgreens family members like Manta who have held in toto MILLIONS of shares going back to 1985 and the NYSE recap with acquisition costs valued as low as around $1.10/share. I have one family member who has still not "pulled the plug" and holds beaucoups shares at this cost basis. If they sell, they pay 15% on the gain; if they wait and Congress stalls on cap gains, they could pay 37% or more. Who wants to play "CHICKEN"?
You asked for my prediction on sector growth for 2013. Again, the fiscal cliff question must be resolved, or I will remain largely in cash. If a prudent outcome is agreed to, I obviously favor nat gas production/infrastructure/conversion/export. I favor some commodity plays as I identified, yesterday. I like casual dining restaurants. And I especially like hard-coming online retail factors like Overstock.com who could well be the next Amazon. If AAPL drops below $500, I will be a major buyer.
Walgreens is an enigma to me. Wasson and "stooges" need to go before I would take another serious position. I could run this company to $100 per share with almost no risk... so could many seasoned managers whose interests were aligned with all shareholders. WAG better PRAY that an activist investor like Carl Icahn doesn't make a move here because the sacred cows could go to the slaughterhouse, real fast.
A "Sushi-Mobile"? Omigod, how much more STUPID can it get?
GLTA,
Yank
