Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[lax20m]

Personally I think the Black Box warning was a big deal in terms of the effect on the short term stock price (at least it was on friday)but unimportant to the actual commercial viability of the product in both the short and long term.

Logically the first people to start using Pona will be those who have the T315 mutation or anyone who has failed a second line TKI. The warning has no effect on those people starting PONA because they have no other choice. Where there will be potential that people will pause for concern would be using Pona as a second line drug. But realistically we wouldn't have gotten many of those patients right out of the gate anyway. Most physicians, and people for that matter, do what they know. If you are a doc prescribing a current second line drug you aren't likely to stop using those drugs for new patients the day Pona gets approval and move to something else and you certainly don't switch the drug of a patient currently using a 2nd line option. 2nd line use will happen more gradual overtime and as that time passes more safety information will be available.

I really don't think the black box has a material impact in the short, mid or long term unless of course the safety profile is determined to be more dangerous.