Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Sure, 5x is reasonable (although I backed out a 6X multiple from Merrill's report). Assuming $1 billion in revenue, ARIA is worth $5 billion on Iclusig alone. With 168mm shares outstanding, that's right around a $30 price target or 60% upside from Friday's close. Plus you get a free ride on the ALK inhibitor, AP26113 which, btw, Merrill is already valuing at $11 a share.

ARIA would only be worth that $5B market cap estimate on Iclusig once we reach that peak sales level, not today, which is presumably at least 5 years away. I realize there's still '113 but that's still really early and I'm just not interested myself at this valuation. I hope I'm completely wrong and it works out for you ARIA longs though. I may re-visit if the launch is slow and the valuation takes a hit though.