Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

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Re: perhaps your ability to determine which company has better prospects going forward is on par with your ability to determine which stock was a better investment vehicle over the past 5,4,3,2,1 year/s?

The largest price I've ever paid for INTC was $36, and I sold these at a small loss the last time INTC went over $30. I even announced it on these forums, so you might find my post if you search back. Most of my purchases in the past few years were in the teens and low $20s. So I haven't lost that much, and with some trades, made some good money.

I've also invested in AMD during some of their best ramps. I made a run in the $8 to $13 range and another run in the $16-$24 range. I've also announced some of these trades, and you can look them up. Right now, however, I am not interested in investing in AMD, since I believe the near term prospects are limited, and the long term prospects are negative. Some time next year, Intel will have caught up to AMD and surpass them in performance, and at that point, investors are going to wonder why they are paying a multiple of over 200 for the stock. If the prospects aren't positive and in the worst case very negative, then why should anyone put there money into it, unless their money is already in it and they want to find a top?

Re: amd has the better products and is the only company with the potential for exponential growth in revenue and earnings going forward. Perhaps, like intel, you try to integrate too much complexity into your analysis?

They can easily get buried in costs next year as they expense their new fab and lack the performance advantage to justify a high ASP. They have better products now, but I think this will change next year. Many people here have different expectations, but most of them revolve around how well Intel will save their server market share with Blackford and Dempsey next quarter, and whether they can reverse AMD's gains later in the year with Woodcrest. I'll admit that much depends on the performance and execution on these new product lines.