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Friday, December 14, 2012 5:52:56 PM
Regardless of whether there is any news ib the next 4 weeks, in that losses have a 30 day wash time, the sooner you take a loss IN CASE THERE IS NEWS, the better off you are should there be an intent to re-buy shares followed by good news.
I happen to think the price action self evidently suggests that professionals are of a mind that assumes that there is news to soon come, and I happen to be of that same mind.
In that we already have the declared intention to attain cash flow positive status, and in that it is self evident that a period of time has passed since that declaration was assuredly asserted, it logically follows that the common sense smart thing to do is to sell as soon as is practicable and to reaquire a position after the 30 days have expired.
That way, you get both tax loss benefits AND a good risk level as regards there being good news soon to come. The best of both worlds.
Some obviously great events loom, if the chart behavior (the narrowing downward sloping wedge, for example):
SEC settlement
machine completion news
sales figure news
formal site announcement of Florida site (which we all know is Jacksonville)
And so forth.
Obviously, a bad event could force the price down, but there are more good events pending than negative events. Risk leans toward one of several known pre-stated positive events happening, if only because there are so many positive events looming.
So, in reply to your question about what you missed, it is my opinion that you entirely missed the obvious logic of going ahead and taking your tax loss in a usable timeframe, and of intentionally re-establishing a new cost basis for next year when the wash rule constratints have elapsed.
And to say it one more time: it matters not, as regards the sheer logic involved, whether there is any news in the timeframe I suggested is most likely. The tax loss would have been a good move anyway, and if such a seller thinks there is even a slight chance of a significant increase in price next year, it logically follows that getting a tax loss PLUS getting a new cost basis for the next year makes sense.
:o)
Imperial Whazoo
"Just my opinions, folks. Do your own due diligence & make your own decisions. DO NOT... I repeat... DO NOT make any investment decisions on my comments. They are my opinions. That's all they are... OPINIONS."
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