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Thursday, 12/13/2012 9:18:51 AM

Thursday, December 13, 2012 9:18:51 AM

Post# of 141
U.S. retail sales undershot assumptions in November
U.S. retail sales undershot assumptions in November due entirely to an outsized drop in gasoline sales that is likely price-related, alongside a remaining mix of retail sales figures that slightly beat assumptions. Analysts also saw modest downward back-revisions that still show an October Sandy-hit to auto and building material sales that was reversed, following solid price-fed headline gains through Q3 that included a September boost to electronics and appliance store sales from the iphone. Analysts still expect a Q3 GDP growth boost to 2.9% from 2.7%, to be followed by 1.2% growth in Q4, though today's data imply a $1 B downward Q3 real consumption revision that would leave an unrevised 1.4% real growth rate. Analysts still expect a 1.4% real growth clip in Q4. For other Q3 revisions, analysts expect a $5 B boost in net exports, a $4 B boost in construction, and a $1 B trimming in inventories. Analysts assume a 0.5% November nominal and real PCE gain that more than reverses respective October declines of 0.2% and 0.3%. Analysts expect a flat November PCE chain price figure that matches our estimate for tomorrow's reported CPI gain, following 0.1% increases for both in October