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Re: KastelCo post# 14568

Tuesday, 10/25/2005 8:23:55 PM

Tuesday, October 25, 2005 8:23:55 PM

Post# of 19037
My case would be that you should own physical gold, about 5% of your net worth, as insurance. Gold mining shares may or may not be a good proxy for physical gold, but CEF and GLD should suffice.

As far as O&G, I have ownership and/or control via working interest and royalties directly via participation in new or re-worked oil/gas wells. Had one well that I invested $14,000 in that had a 2 month payback and will be paying $7K per month at current prices. I got lucky on that one, but have drilled others this year where the payback is over 20 years... On the average with the gusher, payback of this $75K capex will be in under 8 months... In general I much prefer owning the working interest/royalty direct rather than through a public company which is more susceptible to windfall profits tax...

As far as gold shares vs. oil/gas shares, I would suggest you have both. For example, keep 33% in gold shares and 67% in energy shares and rebalance twice each year on then current market prices. The Oil:Gold ratio is still more than 1 deviation from the mean which implies gold is still undervalued relative to gold.

Just some thoughts, but think both gold shares and energy shares should be in your portfolio along with at least 25% in cash/CD's and 5% in physical gold.

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