GoodFellas Big Board Catalyst and Chart Plays

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TROV The $15 Billion Patent-Play In Trovagene

Compelling article on TROV:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1060261-the-15-billion-patent-play-in-trovagene?source=email_rt_article_title&ifp=0

Some excerpts:]

Why Trovagene Is The Next Big Patent Play

In 2013, Trovagene will begin to commercialize several urine-based diagnostic tests to screen for cancer and infectious diseases. This company owns a very broad patent estate that covers virtually every use of transrenal molecular testing - cancer diagnosis and monitoring, infectious diseases, prenatal and genetic testing. By 2014, the molecular diagnostics market will be worth $15 Billion, according to Renub Research.

The reason Trovagene is potentially a multi-billion dollar patent-play, rather than simply a diagnostics company, is that its patent position is the equivalent of a monopoly on blood tests performed today to screen for cancers and infectious diseases

If these numbers seem a tad optimistic, consider Exact Sciences (EXAS). This is a development-stage company that is attempting to commercialize a stool-based screening technology for colorectal cancer. The market has valued the company at more than $650 million based upon this one test for one type of cancer. Compare that to Trovagene's multiple-cancer screening technology, a company sporting a $60 million enterprise value. We're either looking at an unfathomable arbitrage opportunity or a tremendous patent play in Trovagene.

Whichever way you look at it, you're dealing with numbers in the billions of dollars. And more importantly, there's an unsurpassable barrier to entry. Trovagene holds the key to potentially billions of dollars in recurring revenue, and the only way in is to lease the key from the company for a fair bit of money ("lease" as in licensing deals).