Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[BUGGI1000]

@Stock value - now and future - Klaus
Nice to see you already here ...
I find it very amazing, that on RB and now here, so many long-term posters
write so often - I know that (AMD)mystery , but especially on our german
WO (AMD) Board I couldn't stand up like the past years. Don't know why -
probably because the very bad stock situations (not only AMD) and because
my feeling that I have to finish my university master this year - but after years
of postings I feel a little bit tired and weak! Do you feel the same?
I could imagine the times where I wrote my ASP tables, which took hours
every day and this for days, weeks, months ... but now ... ??? AMD is very
frustrating, when you think you are right and then you get every and every time
a hammer on your hat. Do you know what I mean?
I should thing at the times where AMD stood at 20$ and we said, boa eh - this
stock is damn cheap ... and it fall and fall to 10$ in which area I bought alot of
shares, because at this time I trusted the book-value, which was at 10,5$.
Thought that AMD could barely trade under book, but this is only a moment
record - not just more. I made a lot of mistakes, but I think, that I learned alot ...
- I'm hoping for.
And the opposite direction from 5$->4$ is a run to 10 or 20$. (like Klaus mentioned) We can dream -
of course and from the today-standpoint many will say - are you crazy? But
what has AMD "only" to do?
When we COULD!!! make once again profits, it only takes 50cents to ride
us to 10-15$. What are 50cents? 12-13Cents per quarter and without a Tax-rate
only 0,12*350(?) = round about 40-45Mio. profit per quarter. Is that reasonable?

I think it is not unrealistic to take an Flash revenue on the SAFE-site of 250Mio.
in the near future with so much new capacity (FAB25) coming online and with
all the new low and high-end mirrorbit moduls ..
Give us 50Mio. on the "Other-Business" - that means our CPU's have to reach
850-50-250=550Mio. (850=800/810 costs + 40 mio. profit)
An easy math. task:
6,5Mio. units = 85$ ASP
7,0Mio. units = 79$ ASP
8,0Mio. units = 69$ ASP

Especially Jerry dreamed a 50Mio. unit dream and I also thought that 10Mio. per
quarter should be quite easily manageble, but with the existing line and the coming
line-up I'm quite optimistic, that the old record number from 8Mio. can hold as our
buttom, especially from Q3-03 on ...
70$ ASP - it sounds less compared to Intel ... isn't it?
With 3000+ Barton today and 3200+ Barton coming. With only 3,2G PIV in Q2
and 3,4G PIV at the very end of 03!!! With Opterons coming now and Athlon-64
coming in Q3 and with new mobil models starting now with mass appearence in Q2.
Should that goal to hard to reach??? I'm biased to AMD - you know - but do this
sound to unrealistic?

Greetings to all longs - keep up the good "work".

BUGGI