Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[treit2002]

Bear,

Pretty much, I agree with 90%-95% of what you're saying. But it's the 5% - 10% disagreement that I equate to the marginal cap ex investment that comes from equity issuance. If there is absolutely no corporate discretion, as you imply, well, then okay the die is cast.

But I think that there is or should be some discretion, after this long, with the price this low.

For the sake of argument, let's say they would make $150M income in 2014 without new shares. That's $1.50/share at 100M shares. Yes, that's a lot. But with 130M shares they have to earn $195M to get to the same $1.50 share they would have had at 100M shares.

Obviously, the marginal extra of CapEx ($15m) from the 30M shares will not earn an extra marginal $45M in net profit.

I do agree with your major thesis that the vertical integration is basic to the plan, and that it will make the total more than the sum of its parts. And further, it will create strategic barriers to entry for competitors.

I just hope they can do it with say 10M-15M new shares. So, I have hopes for the bond deal; more so for FN and Solomon's prudent, honest, opportunistic share issuance, coupled with modest restraint.