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Re: RealDutch post# 24893

Friday, 12/07/2012 10:26:07 AM

Friday, December 07, 2012 10:26:07 AM

Post# of 163718

There is no reason, NONE, why we should have to wait 3 to 10 years to see some kind of reward.



If we have to wait only 3-5 years to reap the first rewards from an startup agri company that is almost 100% asset-based like SIAF, I think we have saved 20-30 years of our life. No kidding. Not to mention in all those years all profit opportunities would have gone to better capitalized larger competitors. Result= ?

Look at it this way: where would we be today without Solomon's extremely creative financing and business plan? Sure we are paying a small price for that right now. But what price would we have to pay for how long without that plan? For what rewards?

Realistically: how much cash balance and profit did they have just 2 years ago? Nada. Conntinuing ops had a total rev of 10.9m and a net loss of 1.6m. In 2010 they just started their first FF and CF. Where would we be today if this company was to grow its business organically? Lets' see: it takes 2 years to build FF1 even if they had the cash. Say first year rev = 500MT x $25k/MT = 12.5m, a profit margin of 40% would yield a 2012 profit of 5m. Even if CF1 and HU together yield a similar profit, total 2012 net profit would be max 10m. Assume they use that money to build a second FF that takes another 2 years to raise the first fish.by 2014 ... How long would it take them to reach say 0.5 Bill in rev this way, growing organically? Maybe 25-30 years right? B/c we know chinese micro-caps have almost zero assess to bank loans. Well, today lots of folks on this board take it as granted that this company will do 0.5 B rev and maybe a third of that in profit in 2014-2015 while complaining loud about dilution and destruction of shareholder value and... The list of complaints goes on and on...

I think you guys are walking on clouds. Get real.

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