With the fiscal cliff getting worn out as a by-line after weeks of being beaten into the ground, most major news services and national media networks have been focused on THE FLU as lead news item over the last 36 hours. Institutional buyers always grab onto this phenomenon, such as happened during the H1N1 possible pandemic a few years back. When "The Tooth Fairy" fails to deliver huge rewards then the S/P cycles back down to less euphoric levels.
That is not to say that there definitely will not be a flu bonanza for Walgreens but, rather, stating that such a windfall is unlikely and would be shared with more players like CVS, Walmart and grocery and Indy pharmacies if it actually materializes vs.rior active flu years.
For pharmacy retailers, the flu is a mixed blessing when it breaks out in a major way. There is a short-lived spike in cold remedy demand and Rx's plus 11th hour flu shots BUT the backend impact is reduced forward customer traffic (home sick, can't get out to shop) and enormous store-level challenges as store employees call out sick and replenishment deliveries are slowed as distribution employees suffer equally.
Looking at history, I think WAG could continue to see upward momentum for another 90 days if the flu story remains topical. I would recommend a short strategy barring an epidemic with an April timeline for harvesting the over-exuberant S/P elevation.
Today's heavy share volume tends to corroborate my theory. This is not retail-driven interest.
GLTA,
Yank
