Short Term Trading Member Forum

[techcharter]

FNM $50 bounce still in play

The 37 week cycle has bottomed. It's bounnce has already started. The trendline from the longer cycle looks to cap the rally to $50 if that with a time target of 2 weeks before it tops and goes down hard. The 72 month moving average shows all cycles longer than 6 years topped and are half way down. This is where the descent gets very steep and prices crash, especially when several cycles are in their steepest descent. When FNM bubbled, the 37 week cycle was so overshadowed by the long term trends that its consolidation was hardly detectible. It was right translated. This time the larger trend could cause the 37 week to be left translated, limiting the bounce to less than $50.

Elliott waves indicate the past 2 weeks FNM has been in a wave 2 bounce. There is some signal noise due to the sudden drop to $41.34. Does wave 5 end there, or a week later? Ending wave 5 at $41.34 implies the bounce is days away from being over. Starting a week later indicates a waves b and c of a zigzag still need to unfold over the next 2 weeks.

If $42 is broken, SELL.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=FNM,uu[w,a]wacayyay[de][pb11!d20,2!f][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La....