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Re: Huggy Bear post# 12686

Tuesday, 12/04/2012 6:26:19 PM

Tuesday, December 04, 2012 6:26:19 PM

Post# of 18067
Hi Malc,

Very kind of you to forward that information .. I saw that and had sold a little XIN today (for a decent gain) and lowered my price to re-enter LPH.

A very interesting quesiton, for me, is would XIN (or CCCL, JST) continue to pay increasing dividends after being delisted? ... in that case, could still be value although, of course, I understand that XIN could throw in the towel in this circumstance and perhaps 'go dark'.

I still hold some as I think it's proper valuation is 10-20 times if things work out ... the reward is so massive I'm willing to take the risk but have to be careful not to have too many China plays that's for sure!

My philsophy is that any company is a good investment if the share price is sufficiently cheap (and one is diversified). For XIN I'm thinking a 20%+ chance of a 10 bagger+ (over say the next 2-7 years) which is a decent bet to make in small amounts ... I'm very curious if you agree with these numbers? If it's less than 10% chance that things will work out, then this is NOT a good bet here and perhaps I should be selling everything ... I'll keep thinking about it.

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