Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

A number of posters on this board, including me, made a lot of money on ARIA when Ponatinib wasn't its lead molecule. You never even mentioned 614 when discussing ARRY. The trick is, IMO, to get in when maybe the best drug in the pipeline is not necessarily the lead drug.

This is the circular argument we keep having.

So honestly, did you get in at that price level because you researched ponatinib's preclinical data and surmised that it was going to be a blockbuster clinically? Or did you got drawn to ARIA because it had a beat down market cap but still had a pulse because it had a drug or two in the (pre-clinical) pipeline?

On the ARIA board there are a whole bunch of investors patting themselves on the back because they've been in ARIA since it was in the pennies... but that was back when ponatinib didn't exist for any of them. I'm happy for their financial gain, but I sure as sh_t am not going to listen to them for their views on MOAs of drug candidates.

I'm not trying to be harsh; just pointing out that investment gains (and losses) can come from a myriad of reasons. I'm still trying to figure out what fashion of biotech investment works for me. What's hardest for me to figure out is whether or not I make a gain for reasons that I counted on, or if I pulled a Homer* and made gains based on reasons that had nothing to do with my decision process.


* Simpson that is.