XpresSpa Group Inc (XSPA)

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VRNG Valuation from another board

VRNG updated VALUATION
« Thread Started Today at 7:55am »
$5.75 net cash, Short term target $10-12

1) Post-verdict legal motions up to 07 December and after that we will get Final judgement.
Regarding GOOG past damages, we are facing an indisputable clerical math error imo which will be fixed very likely. All defendants must have the correct proportion for their damages.
Total Past damages will be 173M + interests = about 185M

Future Royalties might be higher than 3.5% or JJ could up the 20.9% AdWords portion.

Using only 3.5% of 20.9% and a very conservative 11% y/y AdWords growth we have 650M of future damages.
Skyrocketing Google mobile ads (2016 estimate is almost 4 times 2012) will probably fuel overall ads growth to 20% Y/Y and we have 770M of future damages.
With a range of 650M-770M, an excellent conservative estimate is 700M.

Recap
Total award already won 730M (30+700)
Very Likely Math Error Fix = Total award about 900M
3.5% or 20.9% upped = Total award 1-2B (to be calculated)

Laches appeal worth 350M extra potential => GOOG should think twice about an appeal

Don't forget the image damage for several years for such a big company infringing in its core business and the fact that they paid 500M just to settle the canadian pharmacy ads issue.

If I were Google, I'd buy the patents or VRNG for 1-1.4B as soon as possible ($9.5-12.5 a share).
As soon as possible means before MSFT YHOO or any other.


2) No workarounds. There are plenty of workarounds but they just don't work.
If they had a better code they would have used it by now,
no reason for GOOG to wait for this trial or verdict.

3) Fully diluted shares only if warrants are exercised.
If warrants are exercised = 55M extra cash for VRNG, which puts cash at 115M already (60M+55M)

If you use a net 52% (after legal and taxes) of 900M + this 115M cash + NOLs Net operating losses in previous years which should help another 20M, you have net cash of $5.75 a share fully diluted

$5.75 net cash value
not even considering JJ upping 3.5% or 20.9% nor any following point of this valuation and using conservative numbers for Google ads growth

4) Search patents vs other GOOG adwords network partners (at least $0.40 a share net value)

5) Search patents vs MSFT YHOO (at least $1 a share net value)

6) Telecom patents vs ZTE Huawei Motorola Cisco Juniper Siemens etc. (at least $1 a share net value)

7) New Lang patents clearly very interesting (for example Wireless Energy) (unknown value)

8) VRNG clear skill to use cash very well. Every $ in the bank is worth much more in their hands.

I think that an hostile takeover is likely by any big player AAPL MSFT YHOO GOOG or even others.

Even without a sudden buyout or a big settlement,
My valuation is $10-12 short term and $16-20 longer term.
This stock is a top pick.


Read more: http://vringo.freeforums.net/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=786#ixzz2DWxTCYAP