My reasons for the +$0.90-dividend target.
Mr Lee said in Stockholm in April that he anticipated the first subsidiary to be worth about $250M. Let us be a bit more pessimistic and say $180M.
Say mr Lee IPO's 30% of the company and pays out 50% of this as a special dividend. That would be 15% of what the company is worth; $27M. Now, I have no clue what the share count will be at the time, but let's say 140M. That would give us a special dividend of $0.19.
I also anticipate that the eps for 2012 will be $0.73. Say this can grow year over year by 55% the coming three years. That would give us an eps of $1.75 for 2014.
In Stockholm it is not uncommon to have a dividend policy for about 50% of the eps. Once SIAF is cash rich in 2014, I think it would be within reason for mr Lee to raise the dividend substantially. Established profitable Swedish companies listed in Nasdaq OMX on the Large cap list often have dividend policies of 50% of eps. Say mr Lee wold go for 45% of eps. This would give us a dividend of $0.79 and the we add to this the dividend from the IPO, $0.19, we get a total of $0.98.
Regarding treit's comment on the time for the payment of the special IPO dividend he may very well be correct that it could be paid the same year as the IPO is done. I just anticipated that the dividend and the IPO dividend would be paid at the same time in 2015, but I guess treit is probably more right that the IPO dividend would be paid in 2014.
My point was that the regular dividend for 2014 and the IPO dividend could sum up to +$0.90.
