Thursday, November 22, 2012 6:24:31 PM
Slow pace of carbon cuts brings catastrophic climate change closer: UN
A dead fish on the bed of a reservoir on the drought-stricken island of Gran Canaria. Europe is already feeling the effects of climate change.
Photograph: Borja Suarez/Reuters
The gap between the carbon emission cuts pledged and the cuts scientists say are needed has widened, report warns
Fiona Harvey, environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 21 November 2012 12.50 EST
The world is straying further away from commitments to combat climate change [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change ], bringing the prospect of catastrophic global warming a step closer, a UN report said on Wednesday. The warning came as nearly 200 governments prepare to meet in Qatar for international climate negotiations [ http://unfccc.int/2860.php ] starting next Monday.
The gap between what world governments have committed to by way of cuts in greenhouse gases and the cuts that scientists say are necessary has widened, but in order to stave off dangerous levels of global warming [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/08/climate-change-severe-models ], it should have narrowed. There is now one-fifth more carbon in the atmosphere than there was in 2000, and there are few signs of global emissions falling, according to the new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) [ http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf ].
The warning of increasing emissions came as fresh evidence [ http://www.eea.europa.eu/pressroom/newsreleases/climate-change-evident-across-europe ] was published showing the last decade was the warmest on record for Europe. The European Environment Agency (EEA) said all parts of the region had been affected, with higher rainfall in northern Europe and a drying out in the south, bringing flooding to northern countries including the UK, and droughts to the Mediterranean.
According to the United Nations report, drawing on research from more than 50 scientists, the widening gap between countries' plans and scientific estimates means that governments must step up their ambitions as a matter of urgency to avoid even worse effects from warming. "The transition to a low-carbon, inclusive green economy is happening far too slowly and the opportunity for meeting [scientific advice on emissions targets] is narrowing annually," said Achim Steiner, executive director of Unep.
The explicit goal of international policy is to prevent global warming of more than 2C above pre-industrial levels, which scientists say is the limit of safety beyond which climate change is likely to become irreversible and catastrophic. That goal that has been roughly translated as a concentration of carbon in the atmosphere of no more than 450 parts per million. To meet this, governments would have to ensure that no more than 44 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is emitted per year by 2020. The UN's latest research, published on Wednesday as the Emissions Gap Report 2012, shows that on current trends, emissions by 2020 will be 58 Gt CO2e.
This gap between the cuts needed and the cuts planned brings the prospect of dangerous levels of climate change - entailing more extreme weather including floods, droughts and fiercer storms, such as those witnessed this year - much closer.
Even if countries manage to change direction in time and meet the emissions-cutting targets they have committed to in the past three years, the gap will still be large - about 8 Gt by 2020. To meet scientific advice, countries would have to agree to much bigger curbs on emissions than they have yet done - and there is little chance of that happening at the next round of annual climate negotiations, which begin on Monday in Doha, Qatar. At the fortnight-long talks, ministers are expected to set out a few more details of how they will work towards their agreed plan of drawing up a new global climate change treaty by 2015, to come into effect from 2020.
Despite the slow pace of progress, Steiner said there was still a chance for the world to obey scientific advice. He said: "Bridging the gap remains do-able with existing technologies and policies." He said many of the measures governments were undertaking, from investments in renewable energy to public transport and higher energy efficiency standards for buildings, were yet to bear fruit, and their effects should start to be seen in the next few years.
But he warned that countries must avoid being "locked in" to high-carbon infrastructure - power stations and buildings constructed today will still be in operation and spewing out carbon decades from now, and that will be unsustainable. It would be cheaper to make sure that all such infrastructure is low-carbon from the start, than to abandon it or refurbish in years to come.
Christiana Figueres, the UN's top climate official, who will head next week's talks, said: "Time is running out, but the technical means and the policy tools to allow the world to stay below 2C [of warming] are still available to governments and societies."
Environmental groups warned that the UN report showed governments were failing. Jennifer Morgan, director of the climate and energy programme at the World Resources Institute, said: "This report is another harsh reminder that the world is simply not moving aggressively enough to tackle the climate challenge. The gap is growing and carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, yet the current pledges and commitments by countries remain sorely inadequate. We are already seeing how climate change – with more extreme weather events, rising seas and more droughts – is taking its toll on people, property and our economy. Without a rapid change in direction, the world is headed more and more firmly down a path to even more severe changes that will be felt around the globe."
In Europe, the EEA said land temperatures in the decade from 2002 to 2011 were 1.3C warmer than the pre-industrial average. Europe could be between 2.5C and 4C warmer from 2050, according to projections. The study found heat waves have increased in frequency and length, while river droughts have been more severe and frequent in southern Europe. Glaciers in the Alps have lost about two-thirds of their volume since 1850.
Prof Jacqueline McGlade, executive director of the EEA, said: "Climate change is a reality around the world, and the extent and speed of change is becoming ever more evident. This means that every part of the economy, including households, needs to adapt as well as reduce emissions."
© 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/21/slow-carbon-cuts-climate-change-un
--
UN says carbon cuts too slow to curb dangerous warming
The report is meant to inform climate negotiators who will gather in the Qatari capital next week
By Matt McGrath
Science reporter, BBC World Service
21 November 2012 Last updated at 05:23 ET
A report by the UN says global attempts to curb emissions of CO2 are falling well short of what is needed to stem dangerous climate change.
The UN's Environment Programme says greenhouse gases are 14% above where they need to be in 2020 for temperature rises this century to remain below 2C.
The authors say this target is still technically achievable.
But the opportunity is likely to be lost without swift action by governments, they argue.
Negotiators will meet in Doha, Qatar for the UN Climate Change Conference [ http://www.cop18.qa/en-us/homepage.aspx ] (COP18) next week to resume talks aimed at securing a global deal on climate by 2015.
The Emissions Gap Report 2012 [ http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgap2012/ ] has been compiled by 55 scientists from 20 countries. It says that without action greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will be the equivalent 58 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2020.
That's around 14 gigatonnes above the level that scientists have said [ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n8/full/nclimate1258.html ] is needed to keep temperature rises this century below the targeted level of 2C.
Even if the most ambitious pledges from countries to cut emissions are honoured, the gap is likely to be eight gigatonnes, an increase of two gigatonnes on last year's estimates.
"Eight is a big number," says Dr Joseph Alcamo, chief scientist of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), "that's about the total greenhouse gas emissions of the entire industrial sector in the whole world right now."
The United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) says the increase in the levels of emissions in this year's report is due to projected economic growth in some developing countries and the removal of some emissions cuts that were counted twice.
"The report provides a sobering assessment of the gulf between ambition and reality," says Achim Steiner, the executive director of Unep.
Mr Steiner says that bridging the gap remains technically possible from large reductions in power generation and transport.
The report also highlights examples of relatively inexpensive actions that have been effective in curbing emissions at national level. These include higher performance standards for vehicles and appliances, and economic incentives to reduce deforestation. Many of these actions have been taken for economic reasons but are having the added benefit of reducing emissions.
Lead author, Dr Monica Araya says it is crucial that this approach continues.
"If we want politicians to endorse these policies they have to be able to go out there and sell them on the basis of the benefits they create for their people and not just for the planet."
Critical talks
The report is meant to inform negotiators at the COP18 climate meeting that begins in Doha next week.
According to Christiana Figueres, who will lead the talks on behalf of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it should help governments identify how ambitions can be raised.
"It is a reminder that time is running out but that the technical means and the policy tools to allow the world to stay below a maximum 2C are still available to governments and societies," she said.
The UNEP report follows on from a new analysis by the World Meteorological Organisation [ https://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_965_en.html ] that says the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2011. It suggests that CO2 has now reached concentrations of 390.9 parts per million, or 140% of the pre-industrial levels of 280ppm.
The impact of these gases has been significant, says the WMO, causing a 30% increase of the warming effect on the climate between 1990 and 2011.
*
Related Stories
Greenhouse gases hit record high 20 NOVEMBER 2012, SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20410942
Mapping carbon at street level 10 OCTOBER 2012, SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19875516
Calls for carbon emissions target 08 OCTOBER 2012, UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19867371
Warning over new 'dash for gas' 29 JUNE 2012, SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18641136
*
BBC © 2012
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20414596
--
Third Report Warns that Leaders' Lack of Action Is Locking In Worst Consequences of Climate Change
WASHINGTON (November 21, 2012) – A string of recent reports paints a clear picture that the world is not on track to fulfill leaders’ stated goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees C (3.6 F) above pre-industrial levels, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
“The alarm bells scientists have been ringing for years are turning into a chorus,” said Alden Meyer, Director of Strategy and Policy at UCS. “World leaders set a goal of avoiding 2 degrees of warming, but the commitments they’ve made to meet that goal are inadequate. Without much more aggressive action, we will lose the fight to avert the worst consequences of climate change.”
A United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) report released today [ http://www.unep.org/newscentre/Default.aspx?DocumentID=2698&ArticleID=9335&l=en ] says that countries aren’t doing enough to keep the world from warming 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Even if they met the most ambitious versions of current pledges, the report concludes, emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in 2020 will be about 52 gigatons (Gt) -- some 8 Gt more than is needed to have a “likely” chance of keeping temperature increases below 2 degrees C. The gap could be as high as 13 Gt if more lenient assumptions about current pledges are used. For comparison, current emissions are about 50 Gt per year. This projected gap for 2020 is 2 Gt higher than in last year's UNEP report.
“Not only are nations failing to close the gap between their actions and the 2 degrees goal,” Meyer said, “but the gap is actually widening.”
The UNEP report echoes two others:
-- Last week, the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2012 [ http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/ ] concluded, “if action to reduce CO2 emissions is not taken before 2017, all the allowable CO2 emissions would be locked-in by energy infrastructure existing at that time.” The agency found that two-thirds of known fossil fuel reserves would have to stay in the ground to retain the possibility of limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees.
-- Earlier this week, the World Bank issued a climate report [ http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/climate-change-report-warns-dramatically-warmer-world-century ] that said without further action, “the world is likely to warm by more than 3 degrees C [5.4 F] above the preindustrial climate.” It further found, “Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4 degrees C by 2100. If they are not met, a warming of 4 degrees C could occur as early as the 2060s.”
Exceeding a 2 degree C increase in global temperatures would exacerbate already evident effects of climate change, including ocean acidification, rising sea levels and coastal inundation, droughts, and more frequent and severe heat waves. The World Bank report, in particular, warns of the severe consequences for developing countries, including damage to coastal cities, water shortages and crop failure.
World leaders will again convene for a United Nations climate summit in Doha, Qatar later this month.
The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading U.S. science-based nonprofit organization working for a healthy environment and a safer world. Founded in 1969, UCS is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and also has offices in Berkeley, Chicago and Washington, D.C.
©2012 Union of Concerned Scientists
http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/reports-warn-world-leaders-climate-change-0352.html
A dead fish on the bed of a reservoir on the drought-stricken island of Gran Canaria. Europe is already feeling the effects of climate change.
Photograph: Borja Suarez/Reuters
The gap between the carbon emission cuts pledged and the cuts scientists say are needed has widened, report warns
Fiona Harvey, environment correspondent
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 21 November 2012 12.50 EST
The world is straying further away from commitments to combat climate change [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/climate-change ], bringing the prospect of catastrophic global warming a step closer, a UN report said on Wednesday. The warning came as nearly 200 governments prepare to meet in Qatar for international climate negotiations [ http://unfccc.int/2860.php ] starting next Monday.
The gap between what world governments have committed to by way of cuts in greenhouse gases and the cuts that scientists say are necessary has widened, but in order to stave off dangerous levels of global warming [ http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/08/climate-change-severe-models ], it should have narrowed. There is now one-fifth more carbon in the atmosphere than there was in 2000, and there are few signs of global emissions falling, according to the new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) [ http://www.unep.org/pdf/2012gapreport.pdf ].
The warning of increasing emissions came as fresh evidence [ http://www.eea.europa.eu/pressroom/newsreleases/climate-change-evident-across-europe ] was published showing the last decade was the warmest on record for Europe. The European Environment Agency (EEA) said all parts of the region had been affected, with higher rainfall in northern Europe and a drying out in the south, bringing flooding to northern countries including the UK, and droughts to the Mediterranean.
According to the United Nations report, drawing on research from more than 50 scientists, the widening gap between countries' plans and scientific estimates means that governments must step up their ambitions as a matter of urgency to avoid even worse effects from warming. "The transition to a low-carbon, inclusive green economy is happening far too slowly and the opportunity for meeting [scientific advice on emissions targets] is narrowing annually," said Achim Steiner, executive director of Unep.
The explicit goal of international policy is to prevent global warming of more than 2C above pre-industrial levels, which scientists say is the limit of safety beyond which climate change is likely to become irreversible and catastrophic. That goal that has been roughly translated as a concentration of carbon in the atmosphere of no more than 450 parts per million. To meet this, governments would have to ensure that no more than 44 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is emitted per year by 2020. The UN's latest research, published on Wednesday as the Emissions Gap Report 2012, shows that on current trends, emissions by 2020 will be 58 Gt CO2e.
This gap between the cuts needed and the cuts planned brings the prospect of dangerous levels of climate change - entailing more extreme weather including floods, droughts and fiercer storms, such as those witnessed this year - much closer.
Even if countries manage to change direction in time and meet the emissions-cutting targets they have committed to in the past three years, the gap will still be large - about 8 Gt by 2020. To meet scientific advice, countries would have to agree to much bigger curbs on emissions than they have yet done - and there is little chance of that happening at the next round of annual climate negotiations, which begin on Monday in Doha, Qatar. At the fortnight-long talks, ministers are expected to set out a few more details of how they will work towards their agreed plan of drawing up a new global climate change treaty by 2015, to come into effect from 2020.
Despite the slow pace of progress, Steiner said there was still a chance for the world to obey scientific advice. He said: "Bridging the gap remains do-able with existing technologies and policies." He said many of the measures governments were undertaking, from investments in renewable energy to public transport and higher energy efficiency standards for buildings, were yet to bear fruit, and their effects should start to be seen in the next few years.
But he warned that countries must avoid being "locked in" to high-carbon infrastructure - power stations and buildings constructed today will still be in operation and spewing out carbon decades from now, and that will be unsustainable. It would be cheaper to make sure that all such infrastructure is low-carbon from the start, than to abandon it or refurbish in years to come.
Christiana Figueres, the UN's top climate official, who will head next week's talks, said: "Time is running out, but the technical means and the policy tools to allow the world to stay below 2C [of warming] are still available to governments and societies."
Environmental groups warned that the UN report showed governments were failing. Jennifer Morgan, director of the climate and energy programme at the World Resources Institute, said: "This report is another harsh reminder that the world is simply not moving aggressively enough to tackle the climate challenge. The gap is growing and carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, yet the current pledges and commitments by countries remain sorely inadequate. We are already seeing how climate change – with more extreme weather events, rising seas and more droughts – is taking its toll on people, property and our economy. Without a rapid change in direction, the world is headed more and more firmly down a path to even more severe changes that will be felt around the globe."
In Europe, the EEA said land temperatures in the decade from 2002 to 2011 were 1.3C warmer than the pre-industrial average. Europe could be between 2.5C and 4C warmer from 2050, according to projections. The study found heat waves have increased in frequency and length, while river droughts have been more severe and frequent in southern Europe. Glaciers in the Alps have lost about two-thirds of their volume since 1850.
Prof Jacqueline McGlade, executive director of the EEA, said: "Climate change is a reality around the world, and the extent and speed of change is becoming ever more evident. This means that every part of the economy, including households, needs to adapt as well as reduce emissions."
© 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/21/slow-carbon-cuts-climate-change-un
--
UN says carbon cuts too slow to curb dangerous warming
The report is meant to inform climate negotiators who will gather in the Qatari capital next week
By Matt McGrath
Science reporter, BBC World Service
21 November 2012 Last updated at 05:23 ET
A report by the UN says global attempts to curb emissions of CO2 are falling well short of what is needed to stem dangerous climate change.
The UN's Environment Programme says greenhouse gases are 14% above where they need to be in 2020 for temperature rises this century to remain below 2C.
The authors say this target is still technically achievable.
But the opportunity is likely to be lost without swift action by governments, they argue.
Negotiators will meet in Doha, Qatar for the UN Climate Change Conference [ http://www.cop18.qa/en-us/homepage.aspx ] (COP18) next week to resume talks aimed at securing a global deal on climate by 2015.
The Emissions Gap Report 2012 [ http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgap2012/ ] has been compiled by 55 scientists from 20 countries. It says that without action greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will be the equivalent 58 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2020.
That's around 14 gigatonnes above the level that scientists have said [ http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n8/full/nclimate1258.html ] is needed to keep temperature rises this century below the targeted level of 2C.
Even if the most ambitious pledges from countries to cut emissions are honoured, the gap is likely to be eight gigatonnes, an increase of two gigatonnes on last year's estimates.
"Eight is a big number," says Dr Joseph Alcamo, chief scientist of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), "that's about the total greenhouse gas emissions of the entire industrial sector in the whole world right now."
The United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) says the increase in the levels of emissions in this year's report is due to projected economic growth in some developing countries and the removal of some emissions cuts that were counted twice.
"The report provides a sobering assessment of the gulf between ambition and reality," says Achim Steiner, the executive director of Unep.
Mr Steiner says that bridging the gap remains technically possible from large reductions in power generation and transport.
The report also highlights examples of relatively inexpensive actions that have been effective in curbing emissions at national level. These include higher performance standards for vehicles and appliances, and economic incentives to reduce deforestation. Many of these actions have been taken for economic reasons but are having the added benefit of reducing emissions.
Lead author, Dr Monica Araya says it is crucial that this approach continues.
"If we want politicians to endorse these policies they have to be able to go out there and sell them on the basis of the benefits they create for their people and not just for the planet."
Critical talks
The report is meant to inform negotiators at the COP18 climate meeting that begins in Doha next week.
According to Christiana Figueres, who will lead the talks on behalf of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it should help governments identify how ambitions can be raised.
"It is a reminder that time is running out but that the technical means and the policy tools to allow the world to stay below a maximum 2C are still available to governments and societies," she said.
The UNEP report follows on from a new analysis by the World Meteorological Organisation [ https://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_965_en.html ] that says the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2011. It suggests that CO2 has now reached concentrations of 390.9 parts per million, or 140% of the pre-industrial levels of 280ppm.
The impact of these gases has been significant, says the WMO, causing a 30% increase of the warming effect on the climate between 1990 and 2011.
*
Related Stories
Greenhouse gases hit record high 20 NOVEMBER 2012, SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20410942
Mapping carbon at street level 10 OCTOBER 2012, SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19875516
Calls for carbon emissions target 08 OCTOBER 2012, UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19867371
Warning over new 'dash for gas' 29 JUNE 2012, SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENT
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18641136
*
BBC © 2012
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20414596
--
Third Report Warns that Leaders' Lack of Action Is Locking In Worst Consequences of Climate Change
WASHINGTON (November 21, 2012) – A string of recent reports paints a clear picture that the world is not on track to fulfill leaders’ stated goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees C (3.6 F) above pre-industrial levels, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
“The alarm bells scientists have been ringing for years are turning into a chorus,” said Alden Meyer, Director of Strategy and Policy at UCS. “World leaders set a goal of avoiding 2 degrees of warming, but the commitments they’ve made to meet that goal are inadequate. Without much more aggressive action, we will lose the fight to avert the worst consequences of climate change.”
A United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) report released today [ http://www.unep.org/newscentre/Default.aspx?DocumentID=2698&ArticleID=9335&l=en ] says that countries aren’t doing enough to keep the world from warming 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Even if they met the most ambitious versions of current pledges, the report concludes, emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in 2020 will be about 52 gigatons (Gt) -- some 8 Gt more than is needed to have a “likely” chance of keeping temperature increases below 2 degrees C. The gap could be as high as 13 Gt if more lenient assumptions about current pledges are used. For comparison, current emissions are about 50 Gt per year. This projected gap for 2020 is 2 Gt higher than in last year's UNEP report.
“Not only are nations failing to close the gap between their actions and the 2 degrees goal,” Meyer said, “but the gap is actually widening.”
The UNEP report echoes two others:
-- Last week, the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2012 [ http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2012/ ] concluded, “if action to reduce CO2 emissions is not taken before 2017, all the allowable CO2 emissions would be locked-in by energy infrastructure existing at that time.” The agency found that two-thirds of known fossil fuel reserves would have to stay in the ground to retain the possibility of limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees.
-- Earlier this week, the World Bank issued a climate report [ http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/climate-change-report-warns-dramatically-warmer-world-century ] that said without further action, “the world is likely to warm by more than 3 degrees C [5.4 F] above the preindustrial climate.” It further found, “Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4 degrees C by 2100. If they are not met, a warming of 4 degrees C could occur as early as the 2060s.”
Exceeding a 2 degree C increase in global temperatures would exacerbate already evident effects of climate change, including ocean acidification, rising sea levels and coastal inundation, droughts, and more frequent and severe heat waves. The World Bank report, in particular, warns of the severe consequences for developing countries, including damage to coastal cities, water shortages and crop failure.
World leaders will again convene for a United Nations climate summit in Doha, Qatar later this month.
The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading U.S. science-based nonprofit organization working for a healthy environment and a safer world. Founded in 1969, UCS is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and also has offices in Berkeley, Chicago and Washington, D.C.
©2012 Union of Concerned Scientists
http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/reports-warn-world-leaders-climate-change-0352.html
Greensburg, KS - 5/4/07
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