Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Blackbelt1]

After reviewing the evidence, I see the possibility that Thurs., October 13 was the 5-week low, putting the 10-week low 4 weeks out from here. This is the case Cash has put forward.

The competing theory is that October 13 was a 2.5 week low following a 5-week low in late September. If this true, the 10-week low will be in around November 1 (+/- a few days).

I'm suspicious of the first possibility because it calls for smaller cycles running long when they have been running consistently short.

I'm suspicious of the second hypothesis because it requires a funky 5-week cycle low in the last week of September.

If the latter view is correct, the market will fall again from here and put in a bottom somewhere around November 1 (+/- a few days). Then it will rally or trade sideways through the time that Cash is expecting a 10-week low.

If anyone has clear evidence to decide this case, please publish it.

USA? PMiles? Airedale?

Belt