I'm really liking oil right now too... I'll be looking for above average plays to take advantage of the coming oil rally... I don't think the Isreali cease-fire will hinder crude for long... Oil is really strongright now & I belie e going back above $95 for WTI... Longerterm view, I look for MAJOR problems in the middle east in 2013.
Something tells me to steer clear of all the E&Ps who have been finding success in the Zagros fold belt of Khurdistan (Norther Iraq)... WZGRF & GUKYK are tempting me to go long, especially since Exxon just accepted 6 large concessions from the Khurds & Exxon usually make really good exploration decisions (as does Noble). GUKYF just proved their 2nd 'giant' field discover, with the well testing @ >4000 BOPD. Thei first discovery was actually a 'super-giant' field with over 12 Billion Barrels of reserves. Strangely, it got little press on the united states. Kurdistan's Zagros fold belf houses an unprecedented amount of undiscovered oil, enough to possibly disrupt global supply/demand in 5-10 years, driving prices down (along with increases in production from various other regions).
Unfortunately, concessions awarded by the local Kurdish Gov are not recognized by the Iraqi Government (this is why exxon's move is interesting). There are also no pipelines at the present, though GUKYF has been itching to pay pipelines anywhere they can get approval, haha. Finally, the proximity to Iran and the general, regional instability is very troubling to me... I also feel like Rissia is dying to gain mid east influence, wreak havoc, and ultimately shut down the straight of Hormuz - which is why I feel that the US invaded Iraq on the 'WMD' pretext during the 2nd gulf war...
I really want to get in on these companies, as I see a huge upside being possible in the longterm. I just don't know if it is worth the risk...
Sorry no charts...
AI
