He is someone to listen to. I think today's action has much to do with this story.
Legg Mason's Bill Miller Views the Market as 'Very Attractive Short Term' on Consuelo Mack WealthTrack
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 18, 2005--In an exclusive interview Friday, October 14, legendary money manager Bill Miller, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of The Legg Mason Value Trust, told Consuelo Mack WealthTrack he expects a significant market rally. Miller has beaten the market for an unprecedented 14 years in a row by thinking long term. But in a rare television interview Miller told WealthTrack's Consuelo Mack: "I think in the short term the market is actually quite attractive. The stock market is down this year. It's not down because the economy is bad or corporate profits are bad or anything is wrong. It's down for two macro reasons. Oil prices have gone up a lot and the Fed has tightened 12 times. Both of those macro reasons are either ending or about to end in my judgment.
"Oil prices appeared to have peaked out at 70-85 the day after Katrina. They've been down 15 percent since then. They were weak today and you're seeing demand destruction; you're seeing consumer behavior change; you're seeing the Asian countries stop some of the subsidies; you're seeing China's demand for oil dropping. So you're seeing a lot of things that drove up oil prices ending; you're seeing oil prices coming down. That removes one of the major impediments to the stock market going up.
"The other is the Fed. I think that many people thing that the Fed is going to tighten two or three more times. It is far from clear to me that either they are going to do that or either that they need to do that. But in any case, in the last set of Fed minutes, several governors did raise the questions about whether they shouldn't change their language about 'measured pace'. Any indication from the Fed that they are nearing the end of the tightening will cause the market to anticipate the end of that tightening, which in most cases would not be more than one or two Fed meetings away.
"That would remove both impediments to the market going up. So you're likely to see why you certainly could see in the short run the market rally quite significantly.
"You are also seeing a change of leadership from the old leadership which was oil, commodities, those sorts of thing, to a new leadership which would be, in our judgment, where the values are today, are in the large mega cap companies, the top companies in the S & P."
Consuelo Mack WealthTrack, a new weekly public television series, offers a unique holistic approach to investing. Its mission is to help viewers manage "all the investments they care about" for the long term, including stocks, bonds, real estate, insurance and collectibles, with advice from the best minds in business. Veteran business journalist Consuelo Mack brings viewers the acknowledged experts in a diversified range of fields, in a fresh format with broad appeal. Consuelo Mack WealthTrack is sponsored in part by Merrill Lynch Investment Managers and presented nationally to public television stations by WLIW New York. For more information, visit www.wealthtrack.com.
WLIW New York is the fourth most-watched public television station in the United States, with an average weekly cumulative audience of nearly two million households in the New York metropolitan area. As a resource for public television stations, WLIW distributes live daily broadcasts of BBC World News, as well as the weekly series Wild Chronicles and Jakers! The Adventures of Piggley Winks, and past financial series Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street. For more information, visit www.wliw.org.
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Signatures are so yesterday!
