Portfolio up 5.3%, Dow 3.91%, Nasdaq up a top ten 8.12%, S&P500 up 3.91%, J-Blimps up 8.3%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy 2.9%, Gorilla Hunters up 13.8%, Gilder2001 up 12.4%, OC-192 up 12.1%.
Best days in Nasdaq history percentage wise.
01/03/01 up 14.17% Greenspan drops rates unexpectedly 50 basis points for fed funds rate
12/05/00 10.48% Greenspan, crude dropping below $30 and positive election outcome
04/05/01 8.92% DELL affirms guidance and Alcoa has a good quarter. Yahoo got Lehman upgrade.
04/18/01 8.12% Greenspan cuts rates, INTC says demand may have bottomed and TXN says largest wireless customer inventory done and they would be ordering.
05/30/00 7.94%
10/13/00 7.87% Friday the 13th and a Full Moon too.
12/22/00 7.56 Santa Claus visited the Nasdaq
10/21/87 - 7.34%
4/18/00 - 7.19%
4/25/00 - 6.57%
4/17/00 - 6.56%
4/10/01 – 6.09% CSFB upgrades European telcos to Neutral from underweight, Marconi says it will make numbers.
09/08/98 - 6.02%
12/08/00 – 5.99%
10/20/87 - 5.92%
11/14/00 5.78%
10/31/00 5.58% Halloween
NYSE Volume: 2.2 mln...Adv: 2036...Dec: 1062
Up Volume 1745.80 Down Volume 454.47
New Highs 134 New Lows 30
Nasdaq Volume: 3.1 mln...Adv: 2869...Dec: 1139 Wow the highest since the new volume recording started
Up Volume 2893.26 Down Volume 254.45
New Highs 108 New Lows 67
Put/Call ratio 0.51 (Range 0.45 to 0.51)
Under 0.40 is Very Bullish sentiment, 0.40-59 Bullish, 0.60-0.79, Neutral, 0.800-0.99 Bearish, Over 1.00 Very Bearish. When many are bullish, this may be time to take profit.
May natural gas $5.14 per million British thermal units.
VIX 28.45
When it runs below 20, usually a good time to take some profits. If above 35, good time to buy. The VIX, intraday, hit 37.72 on Dec. 21 and posted a 52-week high of 41.53 in last April's carnage.
Sector Watch
Breakout of the day
Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) 1830.79 +159.28 +9.53% Greenspan, Greenspan, Greenspan
Collapse of the day
Hospitals ($RXH) 289.50 -10.28 -3.43% Sector getting hurt by Medicare caps.
QQQ at $39 Chart: gapped and held. Blocks: 1045/987. Volume%: 65 129M shares is record under new accounting system.
One stock
Intel (INTC) Up 20.12% Quarterly revenues came in at $6.7 billion versus expectations for $6.6 billion; earnings came in at $0.16 EPS relative to a consensus estimate of $0.15 EPS. More importantly, Intel issued second quarter guidance consistent with current analyst expectations. The company expects to generate between $6.2 billion and $6.8 billion in second quarter revenue with gross margins of approximately 49 percent. The company did state second half results should be "larger than" results for the first half of the year. Intel sees solid business in its distribution channels which is a leading indicator of what the company will see in upcoming quarters. Encouragingly, Intel feels quarter two will represent the frequently sought bottom of this current semiconductor downturn. As for current first quarter results, relative "strength" (read stability) in microprocessors was the key. CEO Craig Barret stated, ``Our microprocessor business appears to have stabilized and we expect to see normal seasonal patterns going forward from our current business level." Lehman analyst Dan Niles reducing FY01 est. to $0.55 from $0.65 (mean $0.65) and FY02 to $0.65 from $0.70 (mean $0.94)... Niles questions whether the pickup in demand being seen is related to a replenishment of channel inventory or a pickup in fundamental end demand; his conversations with PC OEMs yesterday indicate that they have not seen a bottom in demand; with a P/E of 40x calendar 2002 estimates, notes that INTC shares are not cheap.
Note: 7.5B in capex will be maintain also.
Portfolio Watch
Only PHA red. ORCL, AMAT, BRCD, NTAP, VLGC up double digits.
I didn’t realize that ORCL been up 7 days in a row.
VLGC is up 32.31%
Watch List things to watch but not trade
At about 10:54 ET the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This means the federal funds rate now stands at 4.5% while the discount rate is 4.0%.
Note: I expected it on April 1, but gave up on it last week.
Nasdaq futures trading lock limit up at +42.00 this morning on TXN and INTC news.
Note: I saw it on CNBC and thought CSCO news late Monday didn’t dampen the techs.
Hewlett-Packard (HWP) down 9.06% Company lowers Q2 outlook; puts earnings for the qtr in the range of $0.13-$0.17, or less than half the $0.35 mean estimate; cites global slowdown in consumer IT spending; forecast includes approx. $150 mln of one-time inventory and capacity write-downs associated with some of the company's consumer products. "At this time, it is quite clear that the U.S. downturn in the consumer market is now spreading to other regions, notably Europe..." Company planning to eliminate up to 3,000 management positions... Sees 2%-4% decline in Q2 revenues; expects revenues for Q3 to be flat sequentially and yr/yr; notes assumptions are subject to change based on evolving market conditions.
Note: Great timing for HP.
America Online (AOL) Up 11.62% Reports Q1 cash earnings of $0.23 a share, 3 cents above the First Call mean estimate, vs yr-ago pro forma net of $0.19. Total revenues increased 9% to $9.1 bln. AOL advertising and commerce revenues rose 37% to $721mln; cable ad revenues were up 17%. Subscription base rose 16% to 133 mln, with AOL service adding more than 2 mln new users. Company improved stickiness, as AOL users spent an average of nearly 70 minutes on line per day, up from 64 in the year-ago period. Successfully cross-promoting its brands, as evidenced by 1) addition of 1.1 mln new Time magazine subscriptions through the AOL service since June 2000 and 2) 69% jump in unique visitors to Time Warner Web sites such as CNN, Sports Illustrated, Entertainment Weekly. EBITDA grew 20% to $2.1 bln and EPS rose 21% (year/year) to $0.23 (two cents above estimates)... Revenues jumped 9% to $9.1 bln.
Note: Film division added quite a bit so all not so rosy as indicated.
Summary
4/10/01The troika effect should happen again. Another 5% gain in the Nasdaq in the next two weeks.
Yep. Never failing indicator.
Today rise might be like January starting a run to the May FOMC meeting. The key difference is that TXN and INTC gave some hope for the bottom. If it was two week as ago, John Joseph of SSB call was great timing.
I never got to buy on the 16th as I am very busy at work. Hope to relax some tomorrow.
Jack
