Qualcomm Inc (QCOM)

[khemara_qc]

War looming in 3G
Chris Jenkins and Michael Sainsbury
OCTOBER 18, 2005

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,16950544%5E15302%5E%5Enbv%5E,00.html

VODAFONE'S announcement that it will begin third-generation mobile services at the end of this month leaves Optus as the last major Australian carrier to declare its 3G hand.

With Optus promising to take its Canberra-only service to Sydney and Melbourne by Christmas, the stage is set for full-scale 3G battles between Australia's mobile heavyweights.
Vodafone said its 3G would be available in Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and major airports by October 31, with the Gold Cost and Brisbane to come on board in March. Adelaide and Perth would follow in July.

Six handsets from suppliers including Nokia, Motorola, Samsung and Sony Ericsson would be available at launch, along with a 3G datacard for laptops. Pricing was not announced.

Vodafone was finalising termination agreements to allow video calls to any of the 3G networks, with technical aspects of inter-network video calls already settled, a Vodafone spokesman said.

Vodafone marketing chief John Casey said the company's international experience gave it an advantage over other third-generation mobile operators.

"We have everything we have learned globally over the past three years and built it into our new Australian 3G network," he said.

With the competition hotting up, 3G carriers have already begun the scramble to secure subscribers, with all new entrants keen to peg back the lead established by Hutchison's 3, which began operations in April 2003. Hutchison claims more than 500,000 subscribers on its 3 network.

Vodafone has already revealed plans to revive handset subsidies for 3G phones, and Hutchison has been spruiking music downloads and photo kiosks.

From next month, Telstra will give away a Bluetooth-equipped Hewlett-Packard photo printer with mobiles that have 1-megapixel or better cameras, Telstra Pioneer group marketing chief Mike Robey said.

Telstra would also have music downloads available by Christmas.

Earlier this year, Vodafone confirmed it would begin offering "access controlled" services, including adult material, from next year.

Despite years of hype about the potential of services such as video calls, news clips and other web-like content over 3G, local pioneer Hutchison's 3 showed that capped-price voice plans were the way to make fast inroads into other carriers' subscriber bases.

Telstra and 3 have made consumer content the focus of their WCDMA-based 3G services, but Gartner analyst Robin Simpson said he expected Vodafone to use capped plans to make a big push for the small business market.

Despite being relatively big spenders, SME customers were not well serviced by carriers, he said.

"Small businesses aren't consumers. They don't just have one phone. Everyone appears to be waking up to that, but Vodafone appears to be further down the track than most," Mr Simpson said.

Optus also is planning to provide 3G for corporates before tackling the consumer segment, a spokeswoman said.

"3G will play an integral role in building our corporate business market share. Exciting and compelling products for consumers will follow," she said.

Also aimed at the business user, laptop cards are shaping as a key battleground for 3G carriers.

In its launch announcement, Vodafone said it would play "aggressively" in the space, which is already being contested by Telstra's EV-DO-based Wireless Broadband, Hutchison's 3 and Personal Broadband's iBurst.

There are signs the segment is already hotting up, Telstra claiming 30,000 EV-DO users, including a headline laptop card deal for more than 2000 users at accountant PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Sydney wireless internet service provider Unwired joined the laptop card battle yesterday. Chief executive David Spence said the card-based service would play a large part in the company's future.

The increased competition could lead to mobile data prices falling from as much as twice the price of an equivalent ADSL plan, increasing uptake in business, Gartner's Mr Simpson said.

Price cuts would not have to be great to encourage take-up, Mr Simpson said. Miserly download limits were an area ripe for competition.

The focus is on business, but the carriers remain very keen to push 3G content to consumers. Vodafone will

migrate its Live-branded service to 3G, and Optus plans to use its relationship with internet heavyweight ninemsn.

Optus would offer a new portal and an enhanced interface later this year, a spokeswoman said.

Telstra's Mike Robey said take-up of the company's web-like i-mode service on 3G had been slow because there was only one compatible handset.

"But on 2G it's going gangbusters," he said, and despite more players entering the 3G market, price competition may not increase.

"I don't think price competition is axiomatic. It is about services."

Telstra's initial 3G experience was that data use dropped sharply after the initial free introductory period, but the remaining usage was several times higher than on 2G services.

Usage had doubled on the past year even on the much-maligned Wireless Applications Protocol, Mr Robey said.

Hutchison had also noted growth in data usage, chief executive Kevin Russell said.

Of the more than 500,000 users on 3, 40 per cent were regular subscribers to at least one data services, he said.

That put the company way ahead of its rivals, he said.

"If we can keep at that level we will be very happy," he said.

Data services still remained a niche area "very dependent on the demographic", Mr Simpson said.

"It is going to be a very slow-growth thing. The bottom line on a 3G network is that you have to fill it up to get the cost efficiencies. We are going to see some pricing stuff, we are going to see some handset subsidies. Content will help a bit, but it's not the killer application. The killer application is still voice. At the end of the day it's going to be about bundling and pricing and capped call plans."

The Australian