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Re: KeithDust2000 post# 63702

Saturday, 10/15/2005 5:27:22 AM

Saturday, October 15, 2005 5:27:22 AM

Post# of 97671
Keith, I can't make sense of it either. Here's some incomplete reasons all of which might added a bit of uncertainty for different groups of people. Once the downward movement started these slowly became known to more people which enforced downwards pressure.

1. Maybe some people knew 65nm would be delayed.
2. Fab 36 a bit later on line than some of the optimists expected.
3. The amount of diluted shares was higher than many had anticipated.
4. Close to $66M profit sharing.
5. Investors were advised en masse to hold into earnings and got spooked when earnings results didn't match price pressure.
6. Intel intro's great many new chips start of Q1.
7. R&D+OpEx guidance a tad higher than some expected.
8. Q1 will see some added depreciation on little added volume.
9. AMD always goes down after earnings.
10. Earnings peaked while 2006 is unclear => it's time to profit now.

It's only a somewhat reasonable theory. The only reasonable one I can come up with considering the info available. Although I'm with you and still looking for the real explanation I also think this is a reasonable enough that it could have happened like I described. For example on SI it took us some time to figure out some of these items too.

Regards,

Rink

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